American League Two-a-Days: Minnesota Twins

LiveBall Sports previews the American League this week.

Team Synopsis: Minnesota Twins

2013 record: 66-96
2013 runs scored: 614
2013 runs against: 788
2013 pythag. record: 63-99

The Twins were a terrible team last year, a year in which everyone expected them to struggle.  In spite of a nice rebound year for Joe Mauer, a downballot MVP guy, the Twins bottomed out and finally sold off all their veteran pieces.  Trading Justin Morneau to the Pirates signaled the end of an era.  The Twins had been tied to that roster contractually ever since they won the division in 2010 and paid Joe Mauer the moon to stay in town.

Mauer’s contract still looks okay as he approaches the mid-way point.  He’s still one of the best players in baseball.  Credit the Twins for not pulling back on payroll, but going out to the free agent market and bringing in RHP Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes to help out now.

Who is having a good spring?

2B Brian Dozier has picked up where he left off last season, flashing power in 2013 for the first time.  Dozier is in the conversation for second best 2B in the American League, after Robbie Cano.  He put up roughly the same slugging percentage as Ian Kinsler while playing 81 games at Target Field, a pitcher’s park.  German-born OF Max Keplar hasn’t played against the big leaguer’s much, but his prospect status makes his team-leading 6 hits notable.  Phil Hughes has been sensational in two spring starts.

Reasons to be optimistic about the 2014 Twins

There are lots of reasons for optimism.  The inefficient spending is finally off the books, although you can call into question giving $50 million to Ricky Nolasco.  Two years ago, the Twins were an unathletic group who swung too much, didn’t walk or hit for power, and was trying to play like this as defenses around the league were getting better positioned and more athletic.  Last year’s team was a much more athletic, patient bunch.  They were an injured group last year, so this year, the offense could be an actual asset.  It wouldn’t be terribly shocking if the Twins posted a league average or better runs scored.

At the same time, this is the best the Twins pitching has been in three seasons.  There’s no top end starter on this staff, but Hughes, Nolasco, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno, and Vance Worley are all mid-rotation types.  A lot went wrong for the Twins on the pitching end last year, and the five guys above who were on the team last year were surrounded by the worst fill in players imaginable.  The Twins are better across the board this year, and with the AL’s best farm system, more help is on the way soon.

Reasons to be realistic about the 2014 Astros

Joe Mauer is on the back end of his career, and the first domino to fall is his full-time move to first base.  And just like that, the AL’s best catcher is no more.  Mauer is still a star at first base, but he’s replaced by Kurt Suzuki.  That’s not an upgrade.

Every pitcher in the Twins rotation is still going to get bombed from time to time.  They might not finish dead last in strikeouts in the AL again this year, but they won’t finish too much above last.

Ultimately, the Twins just have a long way to go.  They were -174 in run differential last year.  Even an 100 run improvement makes them just a 73-75 win team.

The Projections

The Fangraphs projected team WAR for the 2014 Twins is 25.3, 14th in the American League.  Their 12.9 Batters WAR projection is last in the AL. Their 12.4 Pitchers WAR projection is 14th in the AL.  Cool Standings projects the 2014 Twins to win 70 games, a 4 win improvement over last season.  Joe Mauer is the Twin with the best 2014 projection with an average WAR projection of 3.2.  Ricky Nolasco is the pitcher with the best average projection at 2.8 WAR.

The Twins vs the rest of the AL Central

The AL Central is an above average division this year.  The Tigers enter the season with one of the best statistical profiles of any team.  The Royals and Indians are above average opponents with some downside potential.  The Twins should be improved, and have the consensus best farm system, which should help avoid a repeat of the end of last year when they were running a sub-MLB lineup out.  The White Sox are more volatile this year than last, and will have some upside to go with the worst downside in MLB.

LiveBall Sports Projection for the 2014 Minnesota Twins

The projections are really down on the Twins this year, but (spoiler alert) I’m going to go aggressively against the numbers on most of the AL Central teams this year.  The numbers view the Twins as a terrible team, and last year they were a terrible team.  But on the offensive end, the Twins aren’t as inept as the numbers are making them out to be.

The Twins haven’t made it by any stretch, but I’m going to pick them to approach .500 this year, and steal a bunch of wins that people are giving the Indians and Tigers.  We’ll go 78-84 for Minnesota this year, and I think they’ll be over .500 at some point after the all-star break.  Not all of that is one year improvement, but stripping out some factors (and players) who doomed the Twins last year should help in the long run.

2013 Major League Baseball Mega-Preview: the American League

The American League begins it’s 113th season with a stranglehold on MLB dominance in the regular season.  However, no American League team has managed to take home the World Series since the Yankees did in 2009.  Given where the Yankees and Red Sox are with regard to rebuilding their rosters and restructuring their finances, AL teams have a ton to prove this year.

Five teams have won multiple World Series since the Toronto Blue Jays last made the playoffs in 1993: the Yankees have won five times, and the Red Sox twice.  But the other three teams: the Florida Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, and most recently, San Francisco Giants.  The remarkable thing is this has happened over a period of AL dominance.

Lacking the consensus best team in baseball for the first time in awhile, the American League looks to reclaim bragging rights over the National League as interleague play becomes an all-the-time thing for the first time ever.

The American League Central

The Detroit Tigers (2012: 726 runs scored, 670 runs allowed) enter the 2013 season as the clear favorites to represent the AL in the World Series for the second straight year — and the third time in the last seven.  The Tigers are a three man team in many ways, as the only way that Detroit can overcome a down year from RHP Justin Verlander, 1B Prince Fielder, or 3B Miguel Cabrera is for the other two to pick up the slack.  The problems facing the Tigers are numerous: the team declined from its peak in 2011 through the 2o12 season, either slightly (run differential) or significantly (wins) depending on what measure you use.  And outside of getting DH Victor Martinez back from an injury that cost him his 2012 season, it’s not exactly clear where all the Tigers’ perceived improvement is going to come from.

The reason the Tigers are favored heading into the year is because they have the clearest path to the playoffs through the AL Central: having just the White Sox, Royals, and Indians nipping at your heels gives you plenty of leeway.  The Tigers are gambling that they can score 800 runs in 2013 because of an improved outfield, featuring Andy Dirks and Torii Hunter in full time roles instead of Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch.  Actually, truth be told, the Tigers are gambling on a lot of things, especially a flimzy bullpen.  However, improved defensive efficiency in the outfield leads me to bump the Tigers slightly to a 91 win team.

That should be good enough to win a division where there’s unlikely to be a trio of 85+ win teams, but wouldn’t it be nice if the Kansas City Royals (2012: 676 runs scored, 746 runs allowed) could push the Tigers this year.  The Royals best profile as a 83-79 team, but that’s not totally going to take them out of contention for the second wild card, and should make things interesting with the Tigers into early September.  The Royals have a chance to do special things with their bats this year.  LF Alex Gordon enters 2013 a legitimate candidate for AL MVP, as you could make a charitable case for the two time Gold Glove winner as a poor mans* version of Mike Trout.  The Royals spent an obscene amount of money to take the variance out of their pitching staff, which really lead their team’s run prevention through the first two and a half months last year before regressing to it’s true talent level of “minor league.”  The upgrades make the Royals one of the safest, easiest teams in the AL from a projection standpoint: there’s not a ton of upside here, but the dark days appear to be over in Kansas City.

*Although Gordon will make about 22 times more than Trout will this season.

The Chicago White Sox (2012: 748 runs scored, 676 runs allowed) may be the most average team in baseball this year, as they head towards one more year of 82 wins.  The excellent run prevention unit of the White Sox is likely to stay in the ballpark, so to speak: this is a strong defensive team led by SS Alexi Ramirez, C Tyler Flowers, and CF Alejandro De Aza, and a top-level pitching staff featuring LHP Chris Sale and RHP Jake Peavy.  However, after shocking the world and putting up 748 offensive runs and leading the division in run scoring, the White Sox will have a really tough time doing that again.  Run producers like Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn are aging quick and there’s not much the White Sox can do to score if those two stop hitting bombs at such a high rate.  It should be easier for the Cleveland Indians (2012: 667 runs scored, 845 runs allowed) to catch the Tigers in run scoring as the Tribe features a premier lineup, headlined by C Carlos Santana and 2B Jason Kipnis.  But the Indians giving up 845 runs last year wasn’t a fluke: it was just horrific pitching.  That’s a problem that went largely unsolved this offseason, shaping the Indians as a 77 win team.  And Minnesota Twins (2012: 701 runs scored, 832 runs allowed) fans still get to enjoy C Joe Mauer’s best seasons, which is awesome.  They won’t get to enjoy a whole lot a good baseball, but the Twins should be able to avoid 100 losses through some combination of dark magic and veteran contributions.  Pencil the Twins at 65 wins.

The American League East

Dynastic.  While most of the baseball universe realizes that we’re entering a year where the Red Sox and Yankees are strong underdogs against the Tampa Bay Rays (2012: 697 runs scored, 577 runs allowed), I don’t think the baseball universe much realizes how FAR the Yankees and Red Sox will have to go in order to reach where the Rays are going to be in three years.  There’s no question that the Rays — division favorites as far as I’m concerned — have holes on the current team: they tentatively will DH Luke Scott, will play Ryan Roberts at second base, and James Loney at first base, we’re talking about a team that traded away RHP James Shields to Kansas City, and may set a modern American League record for runs prevented this year.  They allowed just 577 runs last season, which is less preposterous when you consider the ballpark effect of Tropicana Field, but the Rays find a way to rank at the top in terms of defensive efficiency every single year.  That won’t change with Desmond Jennings patrolling CF.

But more than any other team in the league, the Rays are injury-proof.  Sure, they’d have just as much a problem as anyone replacing the lineup production of 3B Evan Longoria or 2B/RF Ben Zobrist in extended absence of their two best offensive players.  But they can replace any member of their pitching staff using their lush farm system.  Improving just a bit in terms of run scoring, I think the Rays are capable of a division winning 94 wins.

Their main challenger went all-in on their pitching staff this offseason, making the Toronto Blue Jays‘ (2012: 716 runs scored, 784 runs allowed) win-now tactic a sharp contrast to the win-always scheme preferred by the Rays.  The Blue Jays had two main problems last year: every pitcher got hurt or struggled, and everyone on the offense underachieved or was hurt (save for DH Edwin Encarnacion).  Similar to the Royals, the move all-in to acquire a new pitching rotation (added: RHP R.A. Dickey (Mets), LHP Mark Buehrle (Marlins), RHP Josh Johnson (Marlins))  means the Jays won’t be reliant on recovering pitching arms and prospects (such as Kyle Kendrick ->Tommy John surgery), which is a positive.  But the Blue Jays had a second problem last year which isn’t necessarily going to be fixed purely through regression: their lineup really sucked.  To fix that, they acquired a lot of the Marlins spare contracts, which made a lot of sense in theory until we consider the Marlins lineup also struggled last season.  The cause for optimism is that the Blue Jays are now spending money, which makes them competitors in the AL East this year, and their rotation has a chance to be really, really good.  But the makeover happens on a foundation that won 73 games last year.  90 wins would make them the most improved team in baseball, but the foundation would not fundamentally change unless the Jays push 100 wins, in which case a lot of things got a lot better pretty quickly.

It could be worse.  The New York Yankees (2012: 804 runs scored, 668 runs allowed) haven’t even made it out of Spring Training in a state where Brennan Boesch is not considered an upgrade.  Injuries to 1B Mark Teixiera and OF Curtis Granderson have headlined the spring in New York.  But the Yankees are about to take the field on opening day with three regulars from last years lineup only: Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki, and Robinson Cano.  The rotation is rather promising, and should keep the Yankees out of the cellar by a good margin, but the bottom line is that the Yankees are a 79 win team this year.  That should keep them in company of their rivals, the Boston Red Sox (2012: 734 runs scored, 806 runs allowed), also at 79 wins.  Whereas the Yankees have some semblance of a plan, the Red Sox appear to be trying to tear down to rebuild and compete at the same time.  On the positive side, the Red Sox were 5 games over .500 at the end of June last year, and this isn’t a completely hopeless ballclub.  The rotation isn’t great shakes, but it’s littered with name guys like Jon Lester, Ryan Dempster, and John Lackey, which will probably end poorly in a couple cases, and work out well in others.  You can say that about a lot of areas of a .500 team.  And I think .500 happens to be a bit aggressive for the Baltimore Orioles (2012: 712 runs scored, 705 runs allowed), who finished 2012 impressively, winning all the games that Boston would lose.  Baltimore shakes out as a 75 win team thanks to weaknesses in the rotation, and a team-wide issue with on-base percentage.  There’s upside on the offensive end here with Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Chris Davis all entering their age 27 seasons.  The bullpen, led by closer Jim Johnson, doesn’t have to be as dominant as it was last year for the O’s to exceed 75 wins, but it must still be quite good.

The American League West

The AL West is the strongest division in the American League, and possibly all of baseball.  It would be even stronger if the Houston Astros (2012: 583 runs scored (NL), 794 runs allowed (NL)) didn’t move into it.  The Astros will be fighting to avoid losing 100 games all year.  I think they’ll come close, topping out at 61 wins.  But the real story is at the top of the division, where the Oakland Athletics won their final six games last season to steal the division from the Texas Rangers (2012: 808 runs scored, 707 runs allowed).  The Rangers return as division favorites in my eyes, although many others prefer the Los Angeles Angeles of Anaheim, a California-based baseball club (2012: 767 runs scored, 699 runs allowed).

Texas has been routinely criticized for “losing” in an offseason where they allowed Josh Hamilton ($125 million) to sign with the Angels, failed to reel in Zack Greinke ($147 million) after his contract expired (hard to blame them at those price tags).  They ended up grabbing Derek Lowe on the cheap while biding their time for Colby Lewis to return from arm surgery.  Here’s the thing though: I don’t hear a lot of people arguing that Texas’ offense won’t be alright without Hamliton (they’ll survive) even as most laud the Angels’ aggressiveness in the market.  Texas is being criticized for not acquiring pitching.  But after giving up just 707 runs playing 81 games in the Ballpark in Arlington (Park factor: 112) last season, people are under-rating the quality of the Texas bullpen.  And their biggest offseason acquisition flew mostly under the radar, when the Rangers plucked Joakim Soria from the Royals at rehabilitation (torn UCL) prices.

Although there’s not a ton of pitching depth here, expect the run prevention of the Rangers to improve and they’ll lead the AL in wins this year at 98.  The Angels on the other hand may feel confident in a lineup that can make pitchers face Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton in the first four batters.  The issue with the Angels is that the pitching is a disaster.  They don’t have the bullpen the Rangers do.  They don’t have a bullpen that can consistently get outs.  And unlike last year, they don’t feature a rotation that can get deep into games.  The Angles jettisoned both Torii Hunter and Kendrys Morales to get…something.  Hamilton and Mark Trumbo are a major improvement over Vernon Wells and Hunter, but since neither can play a premium defensive position anymore, the Angels opening day lineup will likely feature Peter Bourjos, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, Alberto Callaspo, and Chris Ianetta playing those tougher defensive positions.  Those players will absorb about half of the team ABs for the Angels this year.  Not only is this not a 1,000 run lineup, but it’s likely not even a 750 run lineup.  The Angels are an 80 win team this year.

Does this mean the Royals are in the playoffs?  Not exactly.  The AL West is strong after the Angels as well, and the Oakland A’s (2012: 710 runs scored, 614 runs allowed) did win the division, posting a run differential exactly on par with the Rangers, and plucked the division on the season’s final weekend.  They would have made a lot of noise if they had beaten the Tigers in the ALDS, but as is, the team returns a lot of it’s pieces from 2012.  Brett Anderson will replace Brandon McCarthy (signed with Arizona) atop the rotation.  Anderson is finally healthy after missing more than two thirds of last year with the torn UCL he suffered in 2011.  The A’s don’t have the front line pitching to allow just 614 runs again, although 660 is a very reasonable expectation for a strong defensive team playing in the hitter graveyard that is the Oakland Coliseum.  I think that 83 wins is a strong expectation for the A’s.

And that will not quite make the playoffs in the AL West.  I am predicting the second wild card will fall to the Seattle Mariners (2012: 619 runs scored, 651 runs allowed), which I’m sure will make Ichiro happy.  The Mariners have done well to rebuild their outfield on the fly, acquiring Michael Morse from the Nationals (in a questionable trade), to match with Casper Wells and Michael Saunders, who both came into their own last year.  With the lineup looking like something other than the worst offense in the AL this year (although still pretty bad), Mariners fans and league observers can finally appreciate the dominance of Felix Hernandez every fifth day.  But after making a lot of quietly sharp moves this offseason (possibly excluding the Morse deal, although that should help out in the aggregate), I think 85 wins might actually qualify them for the playoffs this season.  If not, they’ll at least be right in it.

2013 AL Predictions

East Champ: Tampa Bay Rays (94-68)
Central Champ: Detroit Tigers (91-71)
West Champ: Texas Rangers (98-64)
AL Wild Card #1: Toronto Blue Jays (90-72)
AL Wild Card #2: Seattle Mariners (85-77)

Joe Mauer’s Contract with the Twins is never going to look foolish

The Minnesota Twins made a single mistake when they extended C Joe Mauer before the 2010 season.  They negotiated with a superstar following a career year, when his value was at its highest.  Heading into a contract year, the Twins didn’t have the luxury of time on their side, but they also didn’t have to hit an arbitrary deadline set by the Mauer camp anyway, seeing as they were going to have to pay retail price for Mauer.

Sure, there is a legitimate fear to be had that the Yankees or someone might have outbid the whole market when Mauer reached free agency, but if the Twins were willing to go to $23 million annually, Mauer was going to stay in Minnesota.  They probably didn’t have to go to $23 million if they had waited.

Beyond the timing of the deal being on the player’s terms, the Twins and their fans have plenty to worry about regarding Mauer’s future with the team.  With the first two years of the contract in the books, the Twins have six years and $138 million remaining on the Mauer deal.

And the best part for the Twins is: every one of baseball’s 30 teams would take that contract.

Of course, that’s only partially true.  Young players under team control will always be the most valuable assets in baseball, so the Royals wouldn’t trade Salvador Perez straight up for Mauer’s contract.  The Giants won’t be dealing Buster Posey for him.  I doubt the Orioles would trade Matt Wieters for him.  I’m not sure the Cardinals would trade Yadi Molina either.  I’m certain the Nats wouldn’t trade Wilson Ramos (ironically) Mauer’s former backup  And then there are the teams who can’t get out of contracts with their current catchers like Atlanta and Brian McCann.

But in the abstract, no team would be unhappy with Mauer at 6/138.  It’s sure a lot less scary than Mauer at 8/184.

Mauer is going to turn 30 in April.  The contract will take the Twins through Mauer’s age 35 season.  These are Mauer’s decline years.

But will it matter?  Mauer was worth 5 wins above replacement in 2012, and has settled in as a .370 wOBA catcher, averaging just a tick under .400 in on-base percentage since signing the deal.  He rebounded from an off year with the bat in 2011.  Mauer isn’t going to be an elite player for the duration of the contract, but elite players are more or less locks to outperform what they are being paid anyway: there is literally no replacement for elite performance in the sports world.

But the fear about Mauer is that he’s a catcher that has already spent time on the disabled list.  What is going to happen to the value of his contract when he has to move off catcher and over to first base because he simply cannot stay healthy over a long season while catching games anymore?

The response to such an argument is two fold:

1) the assumption that this event is in the near term future is an exaggeration; and,
2) the argument that first base is the only place that Mauer can go post-catching days is a faulty one.

The reason Mauer is seeing time at first base now is because he’s a full time catcher with a great bat, and first base is sort of a natural position for a catcher to learn with limited practice time.  But if and when Mauer has to move off catcher prior to the conclusion of his monster contract, he won’t immediately go to first base: Mauer could theoretically learn to play any of the four corners given a full offseason, including third base.

The other thing is that Mauer should be able to stay a mostly full time catcher (and part time DH) through his age 33 or 34 season.  To make a point, Derek Jeter and Miguel Tejada are both turning 39 this year, and neither has been asked to move officially off of shortstop yet.  Tejada’s offense has been in full and utter decline for a decade, but he can still handle the rigors of his position defensively.  Omar Vizquel was playing shortstop through his age 44 season.  Tall catchers are probably a little bit different, but Mauer is going to decline offensively prior to being asked to switch positions to preserve the end of his career.

The fact remains that the Twins are going to remain open to evaluating his best position on a year to year basis to get the most out of the contract, something Wins above Replacement does a poor job of capturing.  Mauer is also still a very strong defensive catcher, and this suggests he’s not in immediate danger of suddenly not being the top defensive catcher on the Twins.

But lets be very respectful to typical age-related decline and say that Mauer has to spend the last 3 years of the contract at another position to avoid frequent DL trips.  According to this exercise, the final $69 million of Mauer’s contract will depend on his ability to produce at another position.  If we build in roughly .375 WAR/year decline to his performance — an estimate that builds in the Twins ability to switch Mauer’s position in order to avoid injuries — the Twins have to get roughly 3.6 WAR, 3.25 WAR, and 2.9 WAR from Mauer in the final three years of the deal in order to break even on the contract value.

Here are some 3 1/4 win players from the 2012 season who played corner positions (1B, 3B, LF, RF) on the diamond: DH Billy Butler (Royals), OF Yoenis Cespedes (Athletics), Allen Craig (Cardinals), Hanley Ramirez (Dodgers), and Andre Ethier (Dodgers).  Those players are all younger than 30, sure, but is there any doubt that a mid-thirties Mauer in full decline could be someone like Adam LaRoche, or at least Mark Teixiera?  Because unlike those two players, Mauer can perform at positions that aren’t first base, which will save his value as far as WAR is concerned.

And that’s a worst case scenario, beyond one where chronic knee or back injuries hamper his thirties.

Obviously with any long term contract, there’s built in risk that the player may get hurt and not produce.  This applies to Mauer as well as any other veteran on a long term contract.  That doesn’t mean that guaranteed multi-year contracts are a bad idea, it means that contracts are speculative and based on risk tolerance.

It doesn’t mean that every long term superstar contract looks good in hindsight (see: Rodriguez, Alex).  It just means that every team in the league with even a modicrum of risk tolerance — small-market and big market alike — would absorb the Joe Mauer contract for the next six years, all else equal.

Rebuilding Review: Better off as the A’s or the Twins in the long term?

Some two(ish) weeks ago, I was studying the payroll structures of a select number of American League clubs.

The current perception of the Minnesota Twins has changed drastically since the end of the 2010 season.  The Twins won the AL Central in 2010, and then were the favorites to repeat in 2011.  Instead, they ended up with the second overall draft pick.

The Oakland Athletics slashed payroll again in 2012, managing to find trading partners for both of their top two pitchers, Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez.  The payroll freed up by those moves allowed them to make a play for 26 year old Cuban free agent Yoenis Cespedes.  The A’s still sit in a flexible payroll position for the future.  The Twins, meanwhile, have some payroll coming off the books after this season, but it is debatable whether they can sustain an 100 million payroll.  They may still need to slash.

And that leads to the million dollar question: which franchise is better off?  Obviously, if we stretch this out long enough, the Twins have all the advantages: a brand new ballpark, a better TV deal, a larger market, and would enjoy long term advantages over the Athletics.  But my focus is more on the shorter-term, long term.  The immediate future.  I want to examine the farm systems and the contract situations, as well as the ability to make a splash and take the step forward to the contention and decide whether the A’s or Twins are in better position.

The Twins are set for a bit of payroll relief in 2013, but the relief is not coming from the ranks of the unproductive players.  Carl Pavano’s contract is up, but the Twins are desperate for pitching help.  Scott Baker has a player option for $9.25 million.  That will be picked up if he’s healthy.  Francisco Lirano is a free agent.  Those are the three top pitchers in the Twins rotation.  That is where all but $3 million of the projected salary relief for the Twins is coming from.  That’s coming from Ryan Doumit’s one year deal.

If they opt for salary relief and rebuilding, the Twins rotation will be in dire straights and it’s not clear exactly how much free money they’ll have to go get more pitching.  The reality is that the Twins will probably pick up Baker’s option, and attempt to make a trade to acquire additional pitching, as well as bargain hunting for starting pitching (or really any pitching).  They might find a willing trading partner in the A’s.

The Athletics have the market cornered on young, cheap (mostly right handed) pitching.  Their minor league system is flooded with arms, and while they don’t know right now if they have a developmental ace in their pocket, I think the A’s are of the mindset that ace pitchers are overvalued by the market.  The model the A’s currently use is that they need to have strong defense up the middle and throughout the outfield, and then control pitchers with decent movement will be able to get ground balls, prevent homers, and get deep into the game.  Good defense, according to the A’s model has an exponential effect on run prevention efficiency.  Ace pitching merely gives you a shot to win once every five days.  In other words, it makes sense for the A’s to not pay for pitching when they can let other teams develop it and then acquire it, and then trade it off when it is established.

The A’s plan on offense is far less clear, and as defense becomes more properly valued, they’re going to need to spend some money in order to improve this group.  You can see the plan if you look closely enough: develop cornerstone players at premier defensive positions (Kurt Suzuki, Cliff Pennington, Jermile Weeks, Yoenis Cespedes), and then fill in the rest.  The problem is that, as a group, those players have been amongst the biggest underachievers for the A’s.  For the rest of the season, A’s GM Billy Beane must critically evaluate whether those players need more time to develop, or whether he must go and get better core players on offense.

The salary structure for Oakland leaves plenty of flexibility for 2013, but it’s not clear what kind of opportunities the A’s will have.  Brandon Inge, Brandon McCarthy, and Bartolo Colon are eligible for free agency.  They can replace all three of those players internally, and like the Twins won’t be killed in terms of arbitration raises.  But right now, the offense needs one or two more core players (perhaps at premium defensive positions) before they can handle 162 games of contention and that’s going to cost some money.

The Twins are pretty much stuck with this offensive lineup for another year.  There’s very little help ready in the minors for the Twins, though top prospect Miguel Sano is doing well in A ball.  But after finding Josh Willingham in free agency, and getting a majority of Justin Morneau’s power back, it’s hard to argue that their offense is broke.  The Twins’ defense is broken.  Any help they can get for Denard Span or Ryan Doumit at the deadline would be appreciated.

The 2012 Oakland A’s are probably a better team than the 2012 Minnesota Twins, because they do a much better job of preventing runs compared to the job the Twins do scoring runs.  The Twins’ run prevention is irreparably broken, maybe even more so than the A’s.  Furthermore, the A’s run prevention machine is more sustainable than the recent improvements made by the Twins offense, because the Twins are almost certainly going to have to sell some pieces of that offense for prospects.

And yet, beyond the 2013 season, I actually think the Twins are closer to meaningful contention than the A’s are.  It depends on a number of factors, like Joe Mauer’s ability to provide good innings at catcher, the Twins ability to develop any near-majors prospects they trade for, the development of bats like Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere.  All of those things are risky propositions for the Twins.  But the A’s need to find some source of infield offense this year before they can go into 2013 planning to compete with the Rangers and Angels.

And look, even though the Twins found Josh Willingham at the very reasonable price of 3 years/$21 million, there’s no guarantee the A’s can find a similar bat at the same price.  After all, the Twins signed Willingham because the A’s opted not to match that price tag.

In the very short term, I like the A’s.  Maybe down the road, I think the A’s will be successful with this rebuilding.  But over the next two to three years, I think the Twins, even without a great amount of payroll flexibility, are the easier organization to return to prominence when compared to the Athletics.

And both should enjoy more success than the Mariners.

LBS 2011 MLB Preview: AL Central

LiveBall’s Previews of the 2011 MLB Season begins right in it’s own backyard with a look at the American League’s most tightly packed division, a worst to first description of all the contenders.  And, yes, the Indians and the Royals as well.

5) Cleveland Indians (projected finish: 66-96)

The Indians’ second rebuilding project since their appearance in the 2007 ALCS began much earlier than expected, and was officially brought in by the seemingly natural front office progression of the promotion of hotshot candidate Chris Antonetti to the role of General Manger, with former GM Mark Shapiro taking on the title of “President of Baseball Operations.”  That doesn’t make it immediately clear who will be doing what, but the Indians message for their fans is clear: it’s Antonetti’s show now.

Cleveland’s best asset is its deep farm system, although they lack the bevy of top prospects of the next team on this list.  They have two proven major league regulars in OF Chin-Soo Chu, and OF Grady Sizemore, another to-be regular in second year C Carlos Santana, and then will rely on whatever contributions slow-to-develop OF/1B Matt LaPorta and longtime DH Travis Hafner can give them.

That’s a decent core to build a team around, but unfortunately, it’s unlikely that Chu, Sizemore, or Hafner will be around for the next AL Central-contending Indians team.  LaPorta is increasingly less likely to develop as a power hitter as the weeks pass, and while Hafner rebounded in 2010 for his best season since 2007, he’s 34 now.

The Indians don’t have much by way of pitching, with the erratic Fausto Carmona at the top of their rotation, and the bullpen unsettled, to put it kindly.  This is a problem when you consider the lacking quality of the Indians’ team defense, notably at the hard to fill positions of centerfield, and shortstop.  Former Red Sox prospect Justin Masterson still has some potential to help the rotation, but the rest of the help may still be a year away.  The race for worst pitching staff in the AL Central between the Indians and Royals could be as fascinating as the farm-arms race that will occur between the two clubs in years to come.

4) Kansas City Royals (projected finish: 71-91)

Its going to be just one more year of bad baseball in Kansas City, although the real question is whether or not the product that follows 17 years of bad baseball was worth waiting for.  That’s hard to say.

The Royals could have competed in 2011, but would have needed to hold onto RF David DeJesus, and RHP Zack Greinke to do so, and probably would have needed to add a pricy bat or arm in free agency, and even then, the Royals would only have been a fringe contender for the AL Central.  That would have been more costly when you factor in the additional cost of keeping Greinke happy: holding on to veterans signed last year instead of shedding salary at the trading deadline of a non-competitive team.  Instead the team made the wise “money” move, and traded DeJesus and Greinke for whatever they could get, essentially ending the team’s hopes of competing this year before spring training started.  On the bright side, payroll is down under $35 million this year (thanks to the unexpected retirement of Gil Meche and his $12 million), and only Billy Butler has a guaranteed contract beyond this season.

The teams best player is closer Joakim Soria, but the real reason to expect the Royals to be better than last year despite losing their top position player and best pitcher is the quality of the teams defense.  The Royals were horrid last year at preventing runs in games not started by Greinke or Bruce Chen, and they were horrid despite some defense-independent pitching improvement from third starter Kyle Davies.  Brian Bannister has been jettisoned to Japan, Chen has been resigned, and the Royals added former Rockie left-hander Jeff Francis to replace Greinke.

The team defense will be the reason for improvement in the run prevention unit.  Going from Yuni Betancourt to Alcides Escobar at short is a two or three win upgrade, essentially the difference between Greinke and Francis.  Third base will be a defensive strength, at least until Mike Moustakas arrives in the majors (a day which no Royals fan is dreading), as will second with a continuation of a Chris Getz/Mike Aviles platoon.  First base will be average at best, but an Alex Gordon, Mitch Maier/Melky Cabrera/Lorenzo Cain, Jeff Francouer outfield has the potential to be the best defensive outfield in years for KC.  And that’s without stalwart defender DeJesus.

No matter what, an offense with Francouer, Jason Kendall, Melky Cabrera, Getz, Escobar, and possibly even Pedro Feliz is going to struggle to simply not be the lowest run producing offense in the AL (but thanks for trying, Seattle), and the bats the Royals will rely on this year don’t have a particularly impressive MLB track record (exception: Butler).  That’s why its a minority prediction to suggest the Royals will actually be closer to .500 than to 100 losses.  But improved team defense will make the rotation look better, and as long as Joakim Soria is healthy, the Royals will win a disproportional amount of close games, making this a justifiable prediction.

3) Detroit Tigers (projected finish: 79-83)

There’s plenty of optimism coming out of Lakeland this spring, if for a moment, we can ignore the fact that the team’s best player Miguel Cabrera has a serious issue with alcohol.  The latest bout isn’t career threatening, necessarily, but while similarity scores view him as a player who will be a star into his late thirties, that’s the kind of projection that could be cut short by alcohol abuse.  Cabrera was named the best hitter in baseball by LiveBall Sports last July, in the midst of Albert Pujols’ one seemingly human season in the last eight.  Cabrera hit better than Pujols in 2010, though not quite better than AL MVP Josh Hamilton, although their batting runs above average were practically identical.

The argument is not that Cabrera is the best player in baseball, as he’s a well below average defender at a non-premium position.  Pujols is a great defender, and a far superior baserunner as well.  Cabrera is the most dangerous player in baseball with a bat in his hands.  And alcohol threatens to shorten his run of dominance with the bat.

The Tigers will enter 2010 with the division’s best rotation, including Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Brad Penny, and Max Scherzer, and they will have plenty of firearms in the bullpen as well.  Whether they actually finish the year with the best rotation in the division depends on the quality of work of White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper, and the health of all these flamethrowers the Tigers employ.

The team’s biggest offseason acquisition was Catcher Victor Martinez, a legitimate middle of the order bat, if not the best defensive catcher on the team (that would be second year man, Alex Avila).  Both figure to see more than 350 PAs this year.  CF Austin Jackson and RF Magglio Ordonez will make up two thirds of the Tigers starting outfield, and Brandon Inge returns as the regular third baseman, but the rest of the lineup will be a series of unimpressive platoons and week-to-week sketch ups by manager Jim Leyland.  Inge and Jackson are both excellent defenders, and supersub Don Kelly’s glove will play at any position, but this is not a great defensive team, and Martinez won’t do anything to solve those issues.  Put simply, the bats must rank near the top of the AL for Detroit to win the AL Central.

2) Chicago White Sox (projected finish: 86- 78)

The White Sox should be better than last year for the same reason the Royals should be better than last year.  They made one huge improvement at the weakest position on the team.  Some of the plate appearances that were engulfed by Juan Pierre this year will belong to Adam Dunn, who should make his home nicely in the bandbox that is US Cellular Field.  A second improvement should come from rookie 3B Brent Morel, who if not an offensive improvement, will certainly provide defensive improvement to Mark Teahen and Dayan Viciedo.

The rotation of John Danks, Mark Buerhle, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy, and Edwin Jackson offers the deepest rotation in the AL, with the most potential upside of any rotation west of Tampa/east of Oakland.  Peavy, Floyd, and Jackson all offer value that is more speculative than the established contributions of Buerhle and Danks.

Unquestionably, however, the strength of the White Sox in the infield gives way to one of the thinnest outfields in the majors.  Left to right, the starters are Pierre, Alex Rios, and Carlos Quentin.  Quentin can’t play the field very well, but the Dunn acqusition makes him a full timer out there.  Rios was above average in center last year, but is still stretched kind of thin in center.  He’d offer more defensive value in a corner.  Pierre at least won’t be playing any DH this year, and played a good left field last season, but it’s not a position his bat can handle.  Teahen should see playing time in both left and right field.

If the staff and bullpen goes through the expected development and has the Sox competing near the top of the league in most pitching candidates, the Sox could be big-name buyers at the deadline on an outfielder.  They should be in this race longer than the Tigers, but without additional help in the lineup, the White Sox are destined to come up short, and in a worst case scenario, could find themselves selling at the deadline.

1) Minnesota Twins (projected finish: 90-72)

The Twins remain one of the best teams in baseball.  They were able to retain key contributors Jim Thome and Carl Pavano from their free agent class.  There are only two troubling things about this Twins team: first, that Justin Morneau still isn’t asymptomatic from a concussion suffered last July.  Secondly, that without Morneau, the Twins will play a very, very watered down group of infielders, one that will be tough to win with.

The Twins have had a long standing issue with outfield defense.  Last year, the trio of Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young combined to produce -29 UZR (runs), a staggering figure for guys playing in three positions.  The trio is back this year.

Minnesota was able to mitigate that a bit with excellent infield defense from JJ Hardy, Danny Valencia, Nick Punto, Orlando Hudson, and a great first half with the glove from Morneau.  Of the five names, only Valencia is likely to be good to go on opening day.  Gone are Hardy, Punto, and Hudson.  Japanese signee Tsuyoshi Nishioka will take over at the keystone.  Alexi Casilla is sliding over to shortstop, the only position on the diamond where his bat profiles.  His glove may project there after all, but the Twins ask so much out of their infield defenders to make up for that outfield defense.  They also must rely on Denard Span to have another strong year with the glove in center.

The Twins might have jettisoned their role contributors while holding onto dead weight, such as Cuddyer.  That’s the concern with them.  But an offense that produced enough runs to be at the top of the AL last year — led by all-world catcher Joe Mauer — should pull off the same feat again with even greater ease this year.  The Minnesota pitching staff is unimpressive on paper, but very underrated as a group.  Joe Nathan returns in the closer role this year, strengthening the entire bullpen.

My Twins projection is depressed a bit not because the team won’t be improved at all, but because the White Sox, Royals, and Indians are all improving, and part of the effect of 94 wins by the Twins last year were simply poor in-division competition from teams that weren’t the Detroit Tigers.  The four game margin of victory in the AL Central probably understates how the Twins won’t have to make a deadline trade to win this division comfortably.

The Minnesota Twins’ Team Defense

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I’ve touched on the Minnesota Twins before, how they are winning, and more than that, how they are winning the way they want to win and talk about hitting, clutch hitting and defense.

Hitting in the clutch is hardly a skill specific to Twins, but they are the best at it.  Why are they the best?  The answer is simple: they are the team most likely to deliver a hit in all situations, with a league-leading .282 team batting average.  The team that’s most talented at getting hits is the one that is going to get the most timely hits, all else equal.  The Twins also have a league-leading .350 team on base percentage, so all else equal, they will have more runners on in those situations and do a better job hitting them in.

But tonight, I want to talk about the Twins defense.  It’s not the best in baseball, as that would be the Padres, with the Giants, Rays, and Reds.  But the Twins do have a very good defense, and they show a very interesting dichotomy between their strengths and weaknesses, one that I thought worth discussing.

The Twins are the best team in terms of infield defense.  And it’s really not all that close.  We know about Orlando Hudson’s defensive prowess, and that the Twins were filling a big hole on their team when they signed him.  Justin Morneau was already a good defender, and he was having another excellent season when he got his concussion.  But the left side of the team’s infield was in doubt before this year.  It wasn’t shocking when Nick Punto had a good two and a half months as a top defensive third baseman, but just as obviously, his bat can’t handle that spot.  So the Twins brought up Danny Valencia from triple-A for his bat, and found his glove to be impressive as well.

But the real surprise in the infield has been the defense of JJ Hardy.  Hardy’s defense always rated well in Milwaukee.  But he was coming off injury, and has just turned 28.  There were questions about his ability to produce good defensive numbers again this year, and while his offense hasn’t rebounded to pre-2009 levels, his defense is at it’s highest level since his age 24 season.

And those five players have combined to save an amazing 44 runs this year, which to this moment, is precisely the difference in the AL Central between them and the White Sox.

Still, as well as their infield has played this year, their corner outfielders have been just as terrible, as Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Delmon Young have combined to give back 23 of those runs between them.  The horribleness of the Twins in the outfield isn’t surprising.  If anything, Denard Span has been a bit of a surprise in Center field posting positive numbers there after doing a lot of work at the corners last year.  The Twins could have the worst outfield defense in the league again, but are better than last year because of Span.

It’s not a surprise that the Twins defense has worked out like this, as they had more or less the same split last year, but are better across the board, even with Jason Kubel playing more defense than last year in deference to Jim Thome.  Thome and Delmon Young are primarily responsible for the increase in on base percentage, and they’ve been able to do it without losing any outfield defense.

If we’re talking about relative increases in defense, the Twins still employ some poor defensive players — specifically the same poor defensive players — but across the board this team is better on defense.  They’ve improved in all outfield spots despite continued struggles, have improved at shortstop and third base and second base, and even Justin Morneau is having a better defensive year.

The five win upswing in defensive runs saved from 2009 to 2010 may or may not be partially due to the new stadium (Target Field), but along with improved offensive production, it’s one of the predominant reasons that the Twins are pulling away from the rest of the AL Central right now.

Division Races ‘Central’ to AL, NL Postseason Picture

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There’s not a whole lot of space separating the top two teams in the AL Central and NL Central races.  As of today: a combined four games of cushion.  Those aren’t the only close races — every division is a heat except the AL West — and the NL Wild Card race couldn’t be tighter.  However, it’s the Central races that could determine which legitimate World Series teams will watch from home in the postseason.

AL Central

The three team race in the Central has paired itself down to just two remaining teams, as the Detroit Tigers have fallen first on injury, and subsequently, on an August full of losses.  Over the same timeframe, the Twins offense has exploded (in a good way), and the White Sox have managed to stave off disaster, keeping themselves in a tight race with the Twins.

Problem is, that the White Sox are going to have to do something in the waiver trade market to keep this race tight into September.  The AL Central has been decided in the last day or two each of the last two years, but it looks right now like the Twins aren’t going to play such games with an offensively inferior team.

In defense of the Sox, one of the reasons the Twins might look to be such a superior offensive team could be just a performance over the last three weeks.  Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel have been scorching hot.  J.J. Hardy has been far improved since the all-star break.  Orlando Hudson is back in the lineup.  Justin Morneau will be back soon.  Pretty much every offensive player for the Twins has improved his stock since the all-star break except Denard Span, who has the unfortunate handicap of being on my fantasy team.

The Twins have continued to play great infield defense, and Michael Cuddyer has stopped being an innocent bystander out there in the outfield, also helping his team by playing some first base with Morneau out.

Even if the Twins offense declines a little due to unsustainable production in August, they still figure to be one of the more formidable offensive teams in the AL, with too many bats in that lineup to not power towards October at full speed.

The White Sox just don’t have as much hitting, and they don’t have as much defense, and while they added Edwin Jackson to their rotation at the deadline, they traded a 25 year old ML ready (Daniel Hudson) pitcher to do it.  I think, man for man, the White Sox have an even rotation with the Twins, but when you’re head to head, toe to toe with a team who can pour on the runs onto opponents, “even” means that they are leavin’.

The good news for the Sox is that their schedule is a little bit easier.  A majority of their remaining games vs. quality teams are against the Yankees and Red Sox.  The Twins will be playing mostly against the Rangers the rest of August and into early September.  The White Sox also have a series against the Orioles while the Twins get the Blue Jays.  That’s not enough of a difference for the Sox to be okay with splitting their remaining six games with the Twins — and if the Twins take four out of six head to head, this race is over.

NL Central

Joey Votto vs. Albert Pujols seems like a fun water cooler discussion that can last the next five years.  But the real story of this race is not Pujols, its the Cincinnati offense, which leads the entire NL in per game average.  But against the Cardinals’ pitching, the Reds offense went silent, as the Cardinals completed a crucial sweep.  The Reds rebounded to sweep the Marlins, while the Cards dropped two of three games to the Cubs.

The schedule falls heavily in favor of the Cardinals.  The Cardinals play 17 of 41 remaining games — nearly half — against dreadful opponents in the Pirates, Nationals, and Astros.  They do not play the Phillies, but have a four game set in Atlanta.  The Reds don’t have a difficult team left on their schedule, but only have a combined 9 games against Pittsburgh and Houston, and none against the Nationals.  They do have seven games against Arizona (the Cardinals have none) so if you think they belong in that Pirates/Nationals/Astros category, then the schedule is pretty even.

In fact, half of the remaining slate for the Reds is played against all offense opponents in the Diamondbacks and the Brewers, two of the worst pitching teams in the league.  The Reds and Cardinals only play one more series, so this race is going to be decided in games that aren’t head to head.

The Reds do have an advantage with the position players, as they play better infield defense than the Cardinals, hit better than the Cards, and right now they are healthy.  If the pitching doesn’t implode, I do like Cincinnati down the stretch.  But the Cards pitching is going to have them in the race to the very last pitch, so if Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto can’t carry the Reds, their hitting advantage isn’t going to matter.  This could be the best team in the NL from this point out, or it could be a .500 team that finishes a distant second.

LiveBall Picks: Twins and Reds.

Baseball’s Underachievers at the Break: Who Will Turn it Around?

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Inherently, the ‘underachiever’ label requires a certain level of arrogance on the part of the party that offers the label.  There is a difference — not always clear — between underachieving, and under-performing expectations for more substantial reasons.  Expectations aren’t offered by those who have any say in the building of teams, rather, they are set by the independent masses.  The five underachievers I have chosen to examine in this article were all expected to be well above their current win totals.  The other thing these teams all have in common is a realistic sense that if they could make a move or two at the deadline, they could make themselves relevant in the second half of the season.  None of these teams play in a brutal division, but they’ve all fallen well behind the pace of the other teams in their division.

For a team like the Twins, that means they’ve gone from 10 games above .500 in April to 4 games above .500 at the all-star break, playing essentially as well as the Royals over the same timespan.  They are only 3.5 games out.  Conversely, the Mariners are 15 games out and just traded Cliff Lee inside the division to the division leading Rangers.  One team still expects to make the postseason, the other team made it impossible on themselves.  This article will merely be concerned with the franchise of the two most likely to start playing better, not who is most likely to make the postseason.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have a reputation of an average offensive team who gets by doing the small things, but really excels at pitching and defense compared to it’s opponents, and thats how they get their edge.  That reputation may discredit the achievements of a lot of really good players they have on their team, but it’s more or less been accurate this season.  The Twins have played typically great defense (this in spite of one of the most horrible outfields in recent memory), and it’s helped them assist their top four pitchers in having pretty good seasons, and Francisco Liriano in establishing himself as an ace once again.

Basically, if the Twins need to be a merely average offensive team and above average run prevention team to win the division, well, then they aren’t even underachieving right now.  But with the money the team invested in Joe Mauer, with the years that Justin Morneau and Jim Thome, and the  half season that Delmon Young is having, it sure seems like they need to be an above average offensive team.  It is here that the Twins’ lapses in concentration in baserunning and terrible offensive production from the left side of the infield are meaningful.

The Twins would be better off giving Michael Cuddyer’s at bats and playing time in the field to someone else, possibly anyone else.  Even with Cuddyer in the lineup, the Twins will probably play better in the second half than the first half.  But without a really aggressive trade deadline move, the Twins go from the team who was universally picked to win the AL Central to a team that has less upside at the deadline than the White Sox and must rely on the Sox and the Tigers to stop playing so well (in Detroit’s case, that’s likely, but the White Sox might not stop winning).  It would be horribly disappointing if the Twins failed to win the AL Central, but ultimately, this is just not the elite team we all thought they could be based on their awesome start in April.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are just a dreadful offensive baseball team, and trading Cliff Lee can’t possibly make them a better team, but the acquisitions of Justin Smoak and Russell Branyan will make this team a lot more bearable to watch.  They weren’t inadequate at two positions in the outfield (Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro are above average major league players), but Chone Figgins has turned out to be a dreadful signing, as the team had to decide which of their two third baseman (Figgins and Jose Lopez) would get his at bats in the lineup at second base.  Figgins’ contract will be a lot more bearable when he is playing third base next season with Lopez taking his automatic out elsewhere.

So yeah, the Mariners are going to turn it around.  They still have Felix Hernandez, and their lineup will cease to be the worst in the AL as soon as Smoak starts hitting at a big league clip.  They won’t get an automatic win once every five days anymore, but Lee wasn’t going to be pitching at that level in the future, nor would he have been doing it for the Mariners.  Branyan may or may not return in 2011, but Smoak is the future of the Mariners now, and the future is now.  They’ll be the .500 team we all expected in the second half of the year.

Milwaukee Brewers

A typical high octane offense combined with a team that gives runs away, and that was before Yovani Gallardo got hurt.  It’s still amazing that Jim Edmonds is STILL a strong offensive player in this league, but then again, it’s the National League.  It’s just as shocking that Carlos Gomez still hasn’t turned into something acceptable on offense.  Alcides Escobar is the shortstop there for better or worse, but his offense is downright putrid, and he’s no longer the premier shortstop prospect in the NL Central — that’s now Starlin Castro of the Cubs.

Yes, the defense is terrible, but the pitching is to blame for the team’s underachiving.  There are no solutions on hand either, which means that — unless the offense somehow gets even better — this is just a .450 baseball club, and is underachiving the great expectations set on it.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are almost certain to be a better team in the second half.  There’s a pretty good chance that as they start to get offensive production from all the money they’ve spent on their veteran corner infield tandem, the Cubs will have to score more than four runs a game.  It’s hard to misuse offensive personnel as badly as Lou Pinella has without having an undying loyalty to the same poor performers, and since Pinella appears to be loyal to no one at this point, the Cubs should stop playing Ryan Theriot, Kosuke Fukudome and Koyie Hill so much.

The pitching has been above average, and also figures to get better, even if the team deals Ted Lilly at the deadline.  The Cubs have the ability to be the best team in their division over the second half of the season, which would be a great accomplishment for them, but unfortunately will dump the team around .500 for the year, which figures to be a third place finish.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

You can’t blame the Anaheim offense for underachiving: they lost their most talented player to a freak injury.  This comes after losing their best baserunner to a division rival in free agency.  This has caused Torii Hunter to get even better, somehow.  Bobby Abreu is aging, but he’s still patient and dangerous enough to be valuable.  Mike Napoli is the benefit of the Kendry Morales injury, as he’s getting consistent playing time for the first time as an angel.  There’s a lot of mediocre players on this team who are getting paid to be more than mediocre, which is contributing to the true problem on this team: the pitching staff is underachieving without a typically excellent defense behind it.

The signing of Hideki Matsui has not worked out because his monopolization of the DH position without a fraction of the production that Vlad Guerrero is bringing to Texas right now has caused the Angels to have to play declining fielders to keep Matsui’s bat in the lineup.  Without him, Bobby Abreu and Howie Kendrick wouldn’t have to be full time fielders, and the overall defense would be better.

The Angels have three quality starters, including Jered Weaver who is having a breakout year that could lead him into a 5 year stretch among the elite AL pitchers.  Ervin Santana is still himself, and Joel Pinero has been a good pickup.  Meanwhile, Joe Saunders’ crafty lefty-ness is no match for most AL hitters, and Scott Kazmir has been a horrendous pitcher and an even worse acquisition from Tampa Bay.  Weaver/Santana/Pinero would be a strong playoff rotation, but Saunders and Kazmir look like they will prevent the Angels from getting there.  A bunch of small mistakes: Kazmir, Matsui, and home run celebrations look like they will keep the Angels underachiving throughout the 2010 season, although the long term prospectus is more like the past four years.  This is ultimately a one year slip up.

Quick Fixing the Minnesota Twins

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The Twins are a very good baseball team.  They play in a division where two of the teams are completely uncompetitive, and the other team is ten games under against it’s own league, and is done with interleague play at the conclusion of this weekend.  The Twins were just swept by a very average Philadelphia Phillies baseball team, and now sit on a half game lead in the AL Central.

There’s no way to sugarcoat the fact that the Twins are underachieving what they could be with their lineup and pitching staff in this division.  The good news is that division titles aren’t won or lost in interleague play, and so if they can tweak some minor things, they should be again considered the favorite in the AL Central.  This article will address a fix of the Minnesota roster towards winning the AL Central this season.

For their last 30 games, the Twins have been a .500 ballclub against one of the weaker schedules in baseball.  While run prevention has regressed in the month of June for the Twins, that was not unexpected and the the team is still 2nd in the AL in runs prevented and third in team ERA.  Scoring runs have been more of an issue, and without an 8-spot in a losing effort against the Royals, and a 13-spot in an 11 inning miracle against the Phillies — coming back from 5 down in the ninth to win — the Twins’ bats would be on the verge of a disaster month.

The problems are as follows:

• JJ Hardy has been one of the worst regular shortstops in baseball, which could be worse if he could stay healthy and in the lineup
• The team is getting zero power from Denard Span, Orlando Hudson, and the entire 3rd base position
• Michael Cuddyer isn’t getting on base, and his power is down from previous years
• Joe Mauer is just a guy with the bat, has been hurt, and has only three homers

A bigger flaw in the roster in my estimation is that the team has two of it’s best hitters in Jason Kubel and Jim Thome, both of whom are DHs who hit  from the left side.  Thome is probably playing at exactly the rate he should be, appearing in half the teams games, which has allowed the 39 year old to post an .874 OPS without wearing down.  Thome’s appearances have cut into those of Jason Kubel, who has had to re-learn how to wear a glove in order to collect at-bats this year.  It’s hard to find any fault in the way Ron Gardenhire has managed having two DHs in the lineup, and perhaps it’s not all that shocking that the Twins have been terrible in NL road games.

The Twins outfield defense has been bad enough to make a fan want to cry, but Kubel hasn’t been much worse than either Delmon Young or Michael Cuddyer when he has played out there.  That says less about Kubel, and more about understanding the marginal cost of sending him out into an outfield that is already terrible.  Denard Span is having his best year with the glove, but the Twins simply don’t have another centerfielder.  Credit Gardenhire’s management of the situation for Cuddyer still having a job, as Kubel has overcome a slow start to sufficiently outplay him.  Then again, someone has to play half of Jim Thome’s season, and no matter how good of a year Delmon Young is having with the bat — the last thing I would want to do is trade away the last guy on my team who can play in front of him.

Perhaps the biggest issue for the Twins is that it’s nearly impossible to improve the offense without hurting the defense.  I think there are two places where they can do this: at second base with Orlando Hudson, and at third base with a revolving cast of characters.  Hudson’s defense is still above average, and he’s still a valuable player, but he’s slugging .384 this year, and the trade market will offer legitimate second baseman who can play mediocre defense and drive in more runs with the bat.  The Twins, on the other hand, have a gaping hole at third base where plus defense is about all they are getting, and have a lot more options here than they do at second base.

The biggest need that I see right now for Minnesota is an outfielder.  The Twins need to have a backup plan if Delmon Young decides to “Adam Jones” the second half of the season, and probably need to send Cuddyer to the bench.  Acquiring someone who has to share playing time with Jason Kubel, yet will still help the team, will be challenging.  The Twins need to think: glove first, so acquiring someone like David DeJesus of the Royals, Andruw Jones of the White Sox, Florida’s Cody Ross, Kansas City’s Mitch Maier or Scott Podsednik, or Gerrado Parra of the D’Backs really improves the team in multiple ways, not the least of which would be scoring runs.

The move I would make is to acquire Reed Johnson of the Dodgers in exchange for pitching depth.  Johnson offers a nice platoon option vs. lefties, which is the Twins weakness, and offers strong outfield defense at all times.

Just a minor tweak in the roster should push the Twins back into playing .550 ball for the rest of the season and taking the AL Central.  The move should be relatively minor, and made before the trade deadline, because over the last 30 days — time has been the enemy of Minnesota.

Ozzie Guillen is a Good Manager

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As of this publishing hour, only three teams in baseball have fewer wins than the Chicago White Sox (15).  This is a huge disappointment for a team that certainly has spent the money necessary to compete, and unlike the Royals and Indians, aren’t a perennial disappointment.  The White Sox pitching rotation and bullpen have both underachieved, and the questionably constructed lineup has been a disaster.  Plenty of city folk are calling for someone’s head, usually centered around GM Kenny Williams, and Manager Ozzie Guillen.

Neither are particularly deserving of the blame.  And while there’s plenty of it to go around, the White Sox (and their fans) should probably step back and realize: they’re still in good hands, even if there isn’t going to be any miracle salvaging of this season.

Take a look around the midwest.  Last year, the rudderless Indians fired manager Eric Wedge in August, and replaced him with the savvy, but ultimately uninspiring Manny Acta.  They too have only 15 wins.  Last weekend, the Royals fired Trey Hillman.  Former Brewers skipper Ned Yost is in charge now.  The man who replaced Yost in Milwaukee on a permanent basis, Ken Macha, is on the rocks there now.  Lou Pinella, at best, is not helping the Cubs win.  Dusty Baker is still 1) employed, and 2) sporting one of the more talented NL teams, but his Cincinnati tenure has been marred by all sorts of inconsistencies.

There’s really just three managers who have weathered the test of time in the midwest, of which Guillen is one.  Ron Gardenhire, doing pretty much the same thing in Minnesota, but he’s working with all the chips in the AL Central this year.  The third guy is Tony LaRussa, who knows how to leverage his reputation as a strategist into loyalty from a city and his players.  Of course, if you allowed me to eliminate one manager from that list and run my team with the other two, I’d toss out LaRussa.

After that realization, it’s clear that White Sox fans have little to complain about with Guillen.  Hey, managers existed to be second guessed.  Guillen and Gardenhire both make their share of questionable indefensible moves.  Some blame Guillen’s desire to play the game the “right” way as the primary reason that the White Sox lineup (which can’t exactly run the bases or do many other versions of that ball-in-play jazz) isn’t performing to standard.

Perhaps the Sox are caught in a state of flux right now, not knowing what kind of team they actually want to be.  I’ll suggest that Guillen’s desire to have a team that CAN run and CAN bunt and CAN take the extra base and CAN avoid bad fundamental baseball hasn’t actually stopped the White Sox from doing what they do best: hit the ball out of the ballpark.   Ignoring that the team chose not to return aging power players like Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye, the top four hitters in HR on the White Sox are on pace to combine for 132 HRs this season.  By contrast, the Royals 4th best HR threat, David DeJesus, was asked to bunt two runners over in the first inning last week.

Guillen has a reputation for constructing lineups that have low on-base guys at the top, and while this has actually legitimately hurt the White Sox offense this year, as a team, the Sox are walking a lot with a few outlying exceptions: Pierre, Pierzynski, Rios, and Ramirez.  Konerko, Quentin, Mark Teahen, Gordon Beckham, Andruw Jones, and Mark Kotsay are all reaching base via the walk.  The White Sox on-base problem is simple: they aren’t hitting.  That, of course, is something that Guillen takes a lot of flak for, relying too much on the singles hitting element of his team to drive his offense.  The statistics argue the exact opposite as the problem: the Sox are being victimized by batted ball luck (a remarkably low/unfortunate .238 team BABIP), not by a team-wide philosophy to hack, go for singles, and then run into outs.

Furthermore, Guillen does two things critical of every manager that helps his team in the long term: he sticks with young players who might be hurting the team (Gordon Beckham) while giving less playing time to veterans who might be doing the same (Pierre/Kotsay/Quentin), and he always manages the later innings as if he has faith that his offense can get him back into it.  The trend de jour of managing in Major League Baseball these days is to be protective of ones pitching staff when a win is merely unlikely.  Guillen, even in the face of biting bad luck this year, manages to win even when it’s not likely.  This might be more critical than anything for a struggling offense.

Baltimore manager Dave Trembley, for one example, did not manage his bullpen to shut down the Kansas City Royals last night, trailing by no more than two runs at any point.  Modern bullpens have the ability, if they so choose, to more or less set up the platoons in the later innings so that no starter in a lineup can truly expect to hold the platoon advantage in any given at bat.  Heck, in 2008, Detroit manager Jim Leyland once used LOOGY Bobby Seay to get out Joey freakin’ Gathright in the 7th inning.  Managers tend to opt for caution when trailing, even sometimes by a run late in the game.  I like Guillen because he manages for run prevention even when his team is trailing late, as long as it’s within reason.

It’s no coincidence that the White Sox typically feature lower bullpen ERAs and higher bullpen WPA than other AL teams: they put their talented players in situations to succeed.  They don’t save Matt Thornton’s arm for a better opportunity, he’ll pitch whenever a team groups it’s lefties together.

It appears that bad luck, on both sides of the ball, is mostly to blame for the White Sox’ struggles, along with a steady diet of poor defense.  Manager Ozzie Guillen is not part of the problem, and I think, if things start to even out for the South Siders, he can once again be part of the solution.  Perhaps — unbelievably to some — even without costing his team more outs than other managers in baseball.