Fantasy Slumpers and Fantasy Dumpers: Week 9

Each week we will try to take a look at some struggling players in fantasy football and whether they are just slumping or worthy of dumping. This week will take a look at players who struggled in Week 8.

The Slumpers

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers had a rough fantasy outing in the Packers’ Week 8 9-0 win over the Jets. This was pretty easy to anticipate as Jermichael Finley is out for the season, Donald Driver is nursing an injury and the Jets feature one of the best defenses in the NFL. Rodgers’ line of 15/34 for 170 yards and no touchdowns is sure to improve in coming weeks, and both he and the Packers should benefit greatly from the Week 10 bye. Rodgers still didn’t throw any picks and managed to only take a couple of sacks. With that in mind, he has done little to make us reconsider the #4 ranking amongst fantasy quarterbacks we gave him last week.

Ben Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger is another quarterback who struggled this past week, but also shouldn’t be too big of a concern for fantasy owners. Roethlisberger still threw for nearly 7 yards per attempt and a completion percentage over 60%, but the Steelers were unable to move the ball or consistently make end zone threats against the Saints. Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ offense should get on the field more against a less efficient offensive group. Look for a bounce back in coming weeks with more yards, touchdowns and fantasy points.

Titans Defense

The Titans defense gave up the most points of any week this year in the Week 8 33-25 loss to the Chargers. Fantasy owners should remember that, despite the record, the Chargers are one of the best offensive units in football even without weapons like Malcom Floyd. The Titans have a talent for creating turnovers and have some great pass rushers in Jason Babin and David Ball. The Titans’ defense should have some big performances after their Week 9 bye as they face the Dolphins and Redskins.

The Dumpers

Randy Moss

The Vikings took the ‘dump’ advice we are giving to fantasy owners and decided to cut Randy Moss today. Moss had a pretty dreadful week followed by an interesting press conference and is unlikely to make a significant impact if he finds a new team. Part ways with him as soon as you can and find someone else to help make your playoff push.

Jonathan Stewart

With DeAngelo Williams out, Jonathan had the opportunity to shine and position himself to take carries from Williams. While one Jon Stewart was in Washington rallying to restore sanity, this Jon Stewart was in St. Louis securing Williams’ role once he returns from injury. On the day, he ran for 30 yards on 14 carries while catching one pass for eight yards, On the season, he is averaging less than 3 yards per carry, has less than 200 total rushing yards, and has scored only one touchdown. In such an anemic offense, Stewart is barely worth a roster spot once Williams returns.

Marshawn Lynch

Marshawn Lynch appeared to be the answer to Pete Carroll’s backfield questions when the Seahawks acquired him from the Bills prior to Week 6. Lynch has not impressed, failing to run for more than four yards per carry in three games with his new team. As a result, Justin Forsett and Leon Washington each received five carries in the Seahawks’ loss to the Raiders. With Forsett receiving some short-yardage and receiving opportunities, Lynch’s fantasy relevance is fading fast.

Romo and Favre Fallout: Re-Ranking Fantasy Quarterbacks

In the last week, we’ve seen some big news at the quarterback position. Brett Favre may or may not be out with multiple fractures in his ankle and Tony Romo is out for a majority of the season with a broken collarbone. With such flux, it’s time to refresh our rankings for the second half of the season.

1. Peyton Manning
Manning has been the best performer so far, and gives no owner a reason to doubt his future performance. He will stay on the field, put up yardage and touchdowns, and has a nice Week 15 matchup against Jacksonville.

2. Phillip Rivers
Rivers has also been a top performer, and should keep throwing for a bunch of yards and touchdowns, even with wide receiver Malcom Floyd out. The running game hasn’t been as consistent as expected, but Rivers has taken to the air and done it well.

3. Drew Brees
Brees hasn’t had a bad year, but his four interception game against Cleveland is symbolic of the Saints’ struggles this year. With Reggie Bush on the way back and Robert Meachem back in a prominent role, the Saints’ passing game should rebound and Brees should resume his place as a top three fantasy quarterback. If you happen to make it to the championship game, Brees has a great Week 16 matchup at Atlanta.

4. Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers has had a strong year, but the loss of Jermichael Finley will hurt him over the rest of the season. He still holds on to the ball a bit long and has thrown his share of interceptions, but you’ll get the yards and touchdowns in that Packer offense.

5. Tom Brady
Brady was featured as a “Slumper” in the Week 8 Slumpers and Dumpers and should bounce back from some rough weeks. The Patriots offense hasn’t been as potent lately, but give Brady some time to get into a rhythm, and the points will come.

6. Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan and Roddy White have emerged as a great combo. Ryan is the best of this next tier of quarterbacks and should give owners some great weeks.

7. Joe Flacco
Flacco was also featured as a slumper prior to Week 7 and has performed masterfully, notching five touchdowns, over 500 yards and no interceptions the last two weeks.

8. Michael Vick
Vick is coming back from injury after this week’s bye. When he comes back, he will be in an incredible offensive environment and be capable of putting up huge amounts of points. Still, given his playing style and the relatively strong play of Kevin Kolb, he isn’t the most secure option to finish the year as the starter.

9. Eli Manning
Eli Manning had an interesting game this past Monday night against the Cowboys. While he threw three interceptions, he also notched four touchdowns and was able to yet again find Hakeem Nicks for some big scores. Manning will throw his fair share of interceptions and is still prone to some down weeks, but the overall yards and touchdowns will be there.

10. Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger is still fresh off his suspension, but has played great since coming back. He could easily repeat his standout performance from last year, and will pay off well for any owner who took the risk in drafting him.

11. Matt Schaub
Schaub had his second 300 yard performance in Week 6 against Kansas City and his fate seems to vary with Andre Johnson’s health. Schaub will have huge games, but like Manning, can still have some bad games.

12. Kyle Orton
Orton has been a top fantasy quarterback thus far while operating in a spread-style offense in Denver. However, the last two weeks have seen Orton slow down a bit and Tim Tebow entering the game in the red zone. Orton’s yards and touchdowns could take a dip, and we could see even more Tim Tebow if the Broncos continue to regress.

13. Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick has put together some great weeks and will continue to produce at least respectable the rest of the way. Any owner or prospective owner of Fitzpatrick can read Greg’s analysis asking the question Is Ryan Fitzpatrick a Good Quarterback?

14. Carson Palmer
Palmer looks terrible at times, and sometimes has big weeks like he did in Week 7. He is too much of a wild card to rely on at the sole quarterback option, but could fill in during bye weeks or due to injury.

15. Donovan McNabb
McNabb has had trouble getting the ball into the end zone and won’t produce week-to-week at a high enough level to be anything more than a matchup play. He was featured this week as a fantasy dumper.

16. Jay Cutler
Cutler was a fantasy dumper way back in Week 6 and hasn’t done much to prove that label wrong since. The Bears’ offensive line is still a mess, and Cutler has started to throw interceptions. The Bears will still throw the ball enough to warrant a Cutler start in some weeks, but even against poor opponents he has struggled.

17. Chad Henne
Henne has improved his completion percentage and YPA while gaining a rapport with Brandon Marshall. Still, he has struggled to find the end zone and will have his bumps along the way. He is a pretty good backup option and is a candidate to break into the top 15 this year.

18. Mark Sanchez
Sanchez is emerging from his caretaker role, but is still not going to put up too many yards or touchdowns. His lack of interceptions and the presence of a good red zone target are a plus, but he throws at too low of a percentage and too infrequently to be very valuable.

19. Matthew Stafford
The Lions’ passing game was productive under quarterback Shaun Hill and should remain so with Matthew Stafford at the helm. Calvin Johnson is one of the best wide receivers in the game and gives Stafford the potential for a few huge weeks. Still, there will be growing pains and Stafford shouldnt’t be a primary starter.

20. Jon Kitna
Kitna will fill in for the injured Romo for the majority of the rest of the season. The good news is that he inherits a lot of offensive weapons including the explosive Dez Bryant. Still, his last full year was 2007 and hasn’t done much since. Kitna could fill a void for Romo owners, but they should also consider holding onto Romo as he could return in time for the fantasy playoffs.

21. Matt Cassel
Cassel has put a few solid weeks together, but the Chiefs aren’t going to throw enough over the course of the season to give him too much value.

22. David Garrard
Garrard will come back from his concussion either this week or in coming weeks. He is fairly reliable for some solid production.

23. Josh Freeman
We evaluated Freeman’s 2010 success a few weeks ago. Freeman has made some strides, but has thrown for a low average of late.

24. Matt Hasselbeck
Hasselbeck has done about what anyone could expect out of him, which isn’t much. He’ll put the ball in the air frequently, but is on the fringe of backup quarterback options.

25. Brett Favre
If Favre plays this year, he’ll still have some value, but right now there are two injuries that could potentially keep him off the field. Even when on the field, he wasn’t great this year. Favre should sit on the fantasy bench right now until he proves he can play at a high level.

26. Sam Bradford
The ROY candidate has impressed at times and is a decent option as a fill-in during certain weeks.

27. Jason Campbell
Campbell is in a pretty rough situation in Oakland and should only be added when there’s not many other options. This week Greg looked at the possibility of Campbell regressing.

28. Matt Moore
If he plays, he could have some pretty good weeks, but rookie Jimmy Clausen is always looming.

29. Vince Young
Vince Young is currently a bit dinged up, and wasn’t a good fantasy quarterback beforehand. Given Jeff Fisher’s early season willingness to go to backup Kerry Collins mid-game, Vince Young barely has fantasy value.

30. Tony Romo
If he comes back in time, he could be a playoff difference maker for a team without a quarterback.

31. Kevin Kolb
He has the chance to play in a dynamic offensive system and has shown he can produce.

32. Tarvaris Jackson
With Favre hurt, Jackson will inherit the Vikings’ weak passing game.

33. Max Hall
If you add Max Hall, you’re in trouble.

Fantasy Slumpers and Fantasy Dumpers: Week 8

Each week we will try to take a look at some struggling players in fantasy football and whether they are just slumping or worthy of dumping. This week will take a look at players who struggled in Week 7.

The Slumpers

Tom Brady

Brady had a relatively down week, despite a good number of attempts against the Chargers. The last three weeks have seen a couple of disappointing games and a bye week. At the same time, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is getting goal-line scores, taking some of Brady’s touchdown opportunities. Nevertheless, Brady and the Patriots should get into their offensive rhythm in coming weeks, yielding big results for owners. Look for a big game next week against Minnesota.

Rashard Mendenhall

Mendenhall had only 15 carries for 37 yards in Week 7 against Miami. This was his fewest attempts all year, one of two games he didn’t score a touchdown and the only one where he failed to break a run over ten yards. Neither his workload, lack of touchdowns or lack of big runs is sustainable over the long-term and we should see a big week for Mendenhall after the Week 8 bye for the Steelers.

Jeremy Maclin

Maclin disappointed owners who thought he could have another big week in DeSean Jackson’s absence. While he did produce some yardage on the ground and catching the ball, he was targeted fourteen times and caught only five balls. He also failed to score a touchdown in this game. He clearly isn’t yet a receiver who can operate alone on offense, but he and the Eagles offense should bounce back in Week 9 after a bye week. He is very capable of big plays and touchdowns and is a top fantasy wide receiver.

The Dumpers

Donovan McNabb

McNabb managed only 200 yards despite over 30 attempts in Week 7 against the Bears. He has had trouble getting the ball into the end zone, and his low completion percentage will prevent long drives from occurring in the offense unless Ryan Torain contains to eat up yardage. He has a few old receivers and an emerging one, Anthony Armstrong, but probably won’t get enough big plays to justify a week-to-week start. At this point, McNabb is a matchup play. Fortunately for owners, he is facing the Lions in Week 8, and a good performance could provide an opportunity for fantasy owners to shop him around the league.

Matt Forte

This is the third straight week we have featured a Chicago Bear as a fantasy dumper, and it is no coincidence. The Bears’ offense is looking more inept and in different ways each week. Matt Forte once again did not look as impressive as Chester Taylor, and will probably lose any future goal-line carries to him. He did provide 70 total yards last week, but a fumble hurt his points. Despite the difficulties, offensive coordinator Mike Martz still will not run the ball enough to give Forte a lot of value. Forte remains a decent second running back, but the coming bye week is a good time to find a replacement.

Brandon Tate

It was less than two weeks ago that we looked at Deion Branch’s impact on Brandon Tate’s fantasy value. Unfortunately for owners, our rosy outlook on Tate has not come to fruition. This past week, he was targeted just three times and had one catch for three yards. The week prior saw him with no receptions and a 22 yard run. The new look of the Patriots’ offense doesn’t seem to have a role for Brandon Tate, although he could still emerge. Consider a waiver wire pickup if he posts a big week later on, but for now, he is barely worth a roster spot.

Fantasy Slumpers and Fantasy Dumpers: Week 7

Each week we will try to take a look at some struggling players in fantasy football and whether they are just slumping or worthy of dumping. This week will take a look at players who struggled in Week 6.

The Slumpers

Kyle Orton

Orton had by far his worst game of the year against the Jets in Week 6, totaling just over 200 yards with a touchdown that could have been overturned if challenged. After an impressive performance against the Baltimore Ravens the prior week, Orton struggled early and the Broncos began to run the ball and operate in a more pro-style offense. Even so, this shouldn’t be an indication of things to come for Orton or the Broncos. The running game is still anemic and the Broncos will continue to put the ball in the air. Consider this matchup against the Jets a once-in-a-season occurrence.

Miles Austin

Miles Austin

Austin had a quiet showing in “America’s Game”, but he did have one huge touchdown grab called back on a relatively minor offensive pass interference penalty. Tony Romo was checking down a lot in this game and the Cowboys were more committed to the run than in weeks prior. Austin has had one other down week this year, but has completely exploded in the other weeks. Until he puts up several poor games, there is little reason to be concerned and think of this week as anything more than a bad game.

Michael Turner

Turner is back in the full-time role for the Falcons, but had a slow day on the ground in Week 6, gaining only 45 yards on 15 carries. The Falcons had only 18 rushes on the day after the Eagles went up big early. His big play ability means weeks like these could easily come before a huge performance. The Falcons should be hanging a lot closer with teams in the future and Turner will continue to be one of the better fantasy options out there at running back.

The Dumpers

Brett Favre

Favre’s elbow tendonitis has been greatly talked about in the last week. The consensus seems to be that he won’t miss any time, but the Week 6 game against the Cowboys is probably an indication of the offensive approach the Vikings will take. Favre had a nice game in terms of playing winning football, going 14/19 for 119 yards and a touchdown. However, this wasn’t that great for fantasy owners and it probably won’t get too much better. The Vikings recognize their best offensive asset is Adrian Peterson, and unlike Chester Taylor, he can’t be used nearly as effectively in the passing game. As a result, the Vikings will continue to run the ball more if not also to rest Favre’s arm in case of a late-game comeback attempt. Randy Moss is a nice addition for the Favre and the Vikings, which will probably keep some touchdowns coming, but Favre is ultimately a fringe starter in fantasy football.

Devin Hester

If you are in a fantasy league that gives you points for individual return yards, you can disregard this section of the post. If not, then Hester is quickly losing his value as a wide receiver option. For one, the re-emergence of Hester as a returner will likely cause the Bears to decrease his snaps on offense. Additionally, fellow wide receiver Devin Aromashodu returned to a fairly regular role in the past week, indicating that there will be less opportunities for Hester. The struggles of the Bears’ offensive line will hurt Hester even more, and he is not even the featured deep threat amongst the team’s receivers (that would be Johnny Knox). Many had high hopes for him going into the season, but the early results are what we can continue to expect. Any owner should strongly consider dumping Hester if a better option is available.

Jahvid Best

Things keep getting worse for Jahvid Best after his early-season explosion. He has been bothered by a toe injury and has only averaged greater than four yards per carry twice this year. His prominence in the passing game retains some value, but owners will be lucky to see him run more than 15 times per game given the state of the Lions. Additionally, Best’s continued struggles will likely mean more carries for Kevin Smith going forward, cutting into his potential points. He could still be an option as a second running back in certain weeks, but shouldn’t be relied on as anything more.

Fantasy impact of the Marshawn Lynch trade

In case you didn’t hear, running back Marshawn Lynch was traded from Buffalo to Seattle yesterday for a couple of draft picks. Pete Carroll may have some big plans for Lynch, signaling a shakeup in the fantasy world. Here’s who is affected:

Marshawn Lynch
Lynch gains some job security and will likely get a featured role in the offense. He isn’t going to be a big receiver, but he will get the yardage and is a good bye week fill-in.

Justin Forsett
Forsett has been a poor rusher this year, but is still great in the passing game. He will probably spell Lynch a little bit and get some goal-line opportunities, but is only really worth a start if you are desperate.

Fred Jackson
Jackson will benefit most from this move as it clears out the backfield and leaves his only competition to be the struggling C.J. Spiller who will get the 3rd down touches. Jackson will be a solid second running back for any fantasy owner and is only owned in half of Yahoo leagues at the moment.

C.J. Spiller
This trade is good for Spiller, but won’t pay too many dividends unless there is an injury to Fred Jackson. Despite his preseason status, his value is probably only as a handcuff to Jackson.

What does Deion Branch do to Brandon Tate’s fantasy value?

For any fantasy owner who picked up Patriots’ wide receiver Brandon Tate after the Randy Moss trade, the subsequent trade for Deion Branch might have caused a little bit of frustration. How much will Branch hurt Tate’s new found value and are either worth owning or starting in your league?

I’ll start off by saying that Brandon Tate was likely on his way to a solid campaign even without the Randy Moss trade. In the four games the Patriots played, he had been targeted 14 times and managed to catch the ball at a great 79% rate. We saw in the Week 4 Dolphins matchup that he was beginning to get more featured in the offense.

Branch has had a similarly successful campaign in Seattle, catching 72% of the 18 balls thrown his way, although for much lower average yardage. However, in prior years Branch has seen his average reception drop below ten yards and his catch rate stuck below 60%. Back in his career year in 2005, he had a solid average per catch at 12.8 yards but still only caught 62% of balls thrown his way. Branch has the history of playing with the Patriots and Tom Brady, but keep in mind that he is not the type of receiver that can replace a Randy Moss. He also will not directly replace Brandon Tate as they are different types of recievers — 4 inches separate the two. At 31 years old, Branch is also not the young receiver he was in his early Patriot days.

Fantasy owners are correct in their valuation of Branch and Tate; Tate is owned in 54% of leagues while Branch is only owned in 25%. Despite that, Branch has been the most added player this week after Danny Amendola, signaling some optimism.

We all know that Belichick and the Patriots are great talent evaluators, and if Branch has truly declined, then he won’t see the field enough to take many opportunities from Tate. Even if Branch proves to be a good receiver for the Patriots, Tate should still continue to grow as a receiver and get chances, especially for touchdowns. With the questionable backfield in New England, we could easily see Tate, Welker and Branch all on the field at the same time soon.

At this point, Branch is a purely speculative pickup who could give a few points in a bye week, but won’t be scoring many touchdowns. Tate, on the other hand, could be a solid third receiver option and is a potential star in a Week 16 fantasy championship game when he faces Buffalo.

Fantasy Slumpers and Fantasy Dumpers: Week 6

Each week we will try to take a look at some struggling players in fantasy football and whether they are just slumping or worthy of dumping. This week will take a broader look at those who have raised some questions over the course of the season.

The Slumpers

Joe Flacco

Flacco has not been a terrible quarterback this year, but he also has not met expectations considering the offseason additions of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Both Flacco’s yards per attempt and completion percentage are down, but the Ravens are still putting the ball in the air a lot. Given the late acquisition of Houshmandzadeh and the decline of Derrick Mason, it may take a little more time for Flacco to gain a rapport with his new receivers. Despite the shortcomings, his offensive efficiency measured by DVOA is still strong, diminishing any reason to be concerned. Four of his five interceptions came in the week 2 game against the Bengals and he has posted over 7.6 yards per attempt while averaging over 30 throws per game since then. Given his strong track record, Flacco should break out in coming weeks and start putting up some big points consistently. He is currently owned in 87% of Yahoo leagues and could be made available coming off a no-TD performance in a heavy bye week.

Ronnie Brown

Ronnie Brown has only struggled in terms of fantasy statistics this year. This is mostly due to a lack of goal-line opportunities and his current situation splitting carries with Ricky Williams. There are reasons to be optimistic about Brown going forward; he got more involved in the passing game last week, he has still managed a high YPC and DVOA in 2010, and Ricky Williams has been not quite as good in the same timeframe. Brown also has the lone touchdown amongst the running backs and will probably start receiving a larger portion of the carries in weeks to come as Tony Sparano recommits to the run game. He should have a great week 5 against a banged up Packer team as the Dolphins could be playing much of the game with the lead.

Michael Crabtree

Michael Crabtree is finally a year into his NFL career and is starting to show some signs of life for the hyped but winless 49ers. Crabtree has not been amazing this year, but there is a reason to be optimistic going forward aside from his talent. For one, the 49ers should continue passing as Frank Gore has put up some pretty brutal rushing performances. Also, Crabtree has started to become more of a focal point in the offense after only mustering seven catches in the first three weeks. He has since followed up with five and nine catches and found the end zone against Philadelphia. Frank Gore has caught 33 balls in only 5 games, so some of those checkdowns could easily become points for Crabtree owners. While now out of a slump, Crabtree’s stock may be low as Alex Smith has inspired no one and the 49ers are fading into irrelevance. In Yahoo leagues, Crabtree is only owned by 75% of teams and could be available early this week. He is one of the hotter waiver wire players, but could be overlooked by owners who see Roy Williams, Danny Amendola and Steve Johnson in free agency.

The Dumpers

Dwayne Bowe

Fantasy owners may still have some high hopes for Bowe considering his big numbers in 2008. A lot of people may put the blame on quarterback Matt Cassel and expect some improvement as the season goes on. Unfortunately, Bowe appears to be heading in the wrong direction. This was made evident in Sunday’s game against the Colts where he dropped a pass in the end zone and followed it up with another drop on the next play. Bowe has pretty awful numbers thus far and evidence shows he probably won’t improve. If you look at his 2008 numbers, they mostly came as a result of being targeted 157 times. With the run-first style of the 2010 Chiefs featuring Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, any number of targets near that amount is extremely unlikely. Any success for Bowe is not really a matter of regaining form, but somehow convincing Todd Haley to invoke a strategy that would lose football games. If you are one of the 82% of people in Yahoo leagues who owns Bowe, consider trading him to somebody who didn’t see Sunday’s game or who has been in a cave since 2008.

Jay Cutler

When on the field, Cutler has had a great year in most metrics. Even with the abysmal turnover numbers in 2009, he still had a plethora of touchdown passes. The main issue with Cutler moving forward will be his offensive line  and his concussion. Most reports are that Cutler will return in week 6 against Seattle and the Bears passing game should improve exponentially over Todd Collins’ performance. Nevertheless, the offensive line is even more of an issue with Edwin Williams and J’Marcus Webb getting starts as part of Lovie Smith’s new accountability program. Accountability is nice, but pass protection would be even better. It’s a high likelihood that Cutler could miss more time this year as he is forced to stand behind a bad line in the Martz system. This past week also was a sign of a desire to run the football more often and get offseason acquisition Chester Taylor involved more in the offense. Cutler probably still has a lot of fantasy value, but if you are thinking playoffs, remember his week 15 and 16 matchups at Minnesota and at home against the New York Jets. If you have a good backup like Kyle Orton on your roster, consider dumping Cutler for some help elsewhere.

Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson hasn’t exactly slumped this year, except by his own standards and in terms of early DVOA rankings. However, there are some big signs that Johnson could be in a for a slowdown reminiscent of some of his early-season struggles. Overall, Johnson’s YPC is way down to 4.3 and he is coming off 358 carries in 2009. Johnson has received less than 20 carries in three contests thus far, something which only happened once in his final ten games of 2009. Johnson has also put the ball on the ground 3 times this year and could be a classic sell-high candidate considering the lack of performance of many other top picks. If you can take advantage of this sky-high value, then go for it, but otherwise hope that he continues chugging out those touchdowns.

Third Year Wide Receivers: An Anecdotal Prospectus

[picapp align=”center” wrap=”false” link=”term=jordy+nelson&iid=7595404″ src=”b/1/1/d/NFL_NFC_Wild_720f.JPG?adImageId=12727455&imageId=7595404″ width=”500″ height=”353″ /]

The 2008 draft is memorable for a few things, it’s quarterbacks, it’s offensive tackles, Chris Johnson, uh, Vernon Gholston…and of course, the fact that no receivers went in the first round for only the second time in the Super Bowl Era (1990).

That’s pretty memorable.  Now, that’s also a bit misleading, it’s not that there was a complete void in the WR class for just that season: 10 WRs were picked in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft, leading me to believe less that the class was lead to be weak, and more along the lines of having a year where all the prospects in the class had their flaws.

Through two years, we have a single receiver from the class who is on the verge of stardom, and that’s Phildelphia’s DeSean Jackson.  Jackson is the best receiver, the best runner, and the best returner among all the receivers in this class.  That would give him the triple crown among receivers from the 2008 NFL draft, and also makes it unnecessary to project him beyond this point.  He can be summarized as such: his best days are ahead of him.

For a bunch of receivers in the rest of this class, their futures aren’t so clear.  I will try to analyze the rest of these players and offer a projection for their future, based on statistical and anecdotal evidence.  For sake of simplicity, I will grade each players potential on a scale from 1-5, with 5 being a potential pro bowl performer in the future, and a 1 being a guy who might have already had his best season(s).

2nd round, 33rd pick: Donnie Avery, St. Louis Avery had real flashy numbers coming out of the University of Houston, so I wasn’t particularly surprised when the Rams made him the first receiver drafted in 2008.  He spent the first three years of his UH career reeling in passes from current Eagles QB Kevin Kolb, the 33rd pick from the prior year, and actually had his best year as a senior after Kolb left.  Avery’s pro career hasn’t gone quite as planned in St. Louis, but this is as much because of inconsistencies at the quarterback position as any other reason.  If you’re looking for a “surprise” 1,000 yard receiver this year, and you happen to believe in Sam Bradford as a rookie, Avery is virtually certain to start and finish this year as St. Louis’ number one receiver, and apparently, their internal evaluation measures have determined that Avery is not part of the problem, but rather, the solution.  As disappointing as his 2009 season was, there was enough blame in St. Louis to go around.  Eventually, I think Avery is going to end up not being the go to guy in St. Louis, but if he’s a starting wide receiver in each of the next three years for the Rams, I don’t think that should shock anyone.  Potential: 3

2nd round, 34th pick: Devin Thomas, Washington Devin Thomas’ rate production hasn’t been all that different from that of Donnie Avery’s, but Thomas has had the advantage of a single quarterback starting every one of his 30 career games.  If you want to assume that having Marc Bulger as a QB is as much of an advantage of Jason Campbell, you can defend that to an extent, but then you’d have to discount Avery’s production when Bulger was out of the lineup.  At this point, Devin Thomas’ career boils down to a single great performance against the New Orleans Saints, a December 1st game where he caught 2 TDs…and hasn’t been in the end zone since.  Thomas’ career has been terribly disappointing to date, and while a lot of people feel that having Donovan McNabb will help make his career, a lot of people said the same of Reggie Brown as well.  Potential: 2

2nd round, 36th pick: Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Nelson remains buried behind Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and splits time as the third WR with James Jones, but he has managed to increase his contribution even with increasingly limited opportunities, which is certainly a good sign.  Green Bay has one of the strongest receiving corps in the league, and Nelson enters this third season as a fantasy super-sleeper: the guy who could step into Donald Driver’s role with no meaningful dropoff in production before other fantasy owners in your league realize what is happening up in Lambeau.  Look no further than Nelson’s 6-3, 215 lb frame the reason why he, not James Jones is going to replace Driver, who is at a much more advanced age than you would suspect (he’s 35 already).  Nelson is the guy in this class who should break out not only with great numbers, but the guy who can make a difference on the field.  Potential: 5

2nd round, 41st pick: James Hardy, Buffalo Hardy’s the dude who was drafted in the 2nd round because he was tall.  I had Devin Thomas pegged as the super bust of this class coming out of the draft, but after an injury and ten catches in two seasons, Hardy’s not going to be in favor of the new coaching staff, and his potential of developing into a quality starter in the NFL is basically nil.  Potential: 1

2nd round, 42nd pick: Eddie Royal, Denver Maybe the surprising thing following the mass purge in Denver is that Eddie Royal is still around.  He fit Mike Shanahan’s attack quite will in 2008, but strictly as an underneath target who averaged a mere 10 yards per catch.  Last year, Royal’s production fell off the cliff, as no one suffered more from Kyle Orton taking over at quarterback than Royal, who caught fewer than half of the passes where he was marked as the intended receiver, and didn’t even get 5 yards per target, which would have been a disappointing figure had he been a running back.  As a receiver, Royal’s projection is strictly as a no. 3 slot receiver type, and he’s never going to reproduce his rookie year.  He’s still around, so there’s something that Josh McDaniels sees here, but if he’s going to run more two TE sets in the future, it’s Shanahan’s 2nd round pick that is coming off the field to make room for McDaniels’ second rounder in 2009, TE Robert Quinn.  Potential: 2

2nd round, 51st pick: Malcolm Kelly, Washington Malcolm Kelly ran right through the San Diego secondary for a career long 84 yard reception last year in Week 17, which helped him sport a less-promising-than-it-looks 13.9 yards per catch figure.  Bad defense or not, that catch did occur, and Kelly has flashed some ability to carry out longer developing routes and be a lanky downfield target who should really help QB Donovan McNabb in Washington.  Like his teammate Devin Thomas, Kelly’s first two seasons have been largely a disappointment, but the potential to succeed in the NFL is there.  He can’t fall victim to the injury bug again this season, or his window of opportunity in Washington will vanish.  Potential: 3

2nd round, 53rd pick: Limas Sweed, Pittsburgh The news of the day in the NFL today is that Sweed suffered a potentially serious injury to his Achilles tendon, which could sideline him for the 2010 season.  In honesty, Sweed was probably going to be sidelined for the season anyway even if he was healthy.  Sweed has underperformed everyones expectations, and when you combine serious injury with disappointing prospect, you have a guy who probably needs to be looking at a career outside of football.  Potential: 1

3rd round, 70th pick: Earl Bennett, Chicago Bennett couldn’t get onto the field as a first year player, but he was excellent last year, his 717 receiving yards were 4th in this draft class in 2009, behind only Jackson, Mario Manningham, and Pierre Garcon.  Bennett was the most productive Chicago receiver in 2009, and his rapport with Jay Cutler going back to their college days in 2005 gives him an added advantage in the Mike Martz system.  Martz declared publicly that he’s happy with the current crop of receivers, so Bennett will be in the starting lineup for at least one more season.  Potential: 4

3rd round, 81st pick: Early Doucet, Arizona The Cardinals moved Anquan Boldin to Baltimore, which also moves Steve Breaston into the starting lineup, and puts Doucet in the slot.  He’s been underutilized in his first two seasons in Arizona, but his 12.6 yards per catch is excellent for a slot receiver, as is his 71% catch rate.  I’m discounting a bit for his positioning behind Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald in the Arizona receiver hierarchy, but Doucet has all the makings of an excellent slot receiver for Matt Leinart and the Cardinals.  Potential: 3

3rd round, 84th pick: Harry Douglas, Atlanta Douglas missed all of 2009 with an injury, but his career got off to a really promising start, and if his ACL is fully healed going into 2010, I see no reason that Douglas can’t emerge as a 2a type option on the interior, splitting catches between the numbers with TE Tony Gonzalez  Potential: 3

3rd round, 95th pick: Mario Manningham, NY Giants Manningham’s 822 yards receiving last year ranked second among receivers drafted in this class in 2009, but Manningham’s maddening inconsistentcies makes me believe that 2009 will be a career high for Manningham in both receiving yards and receiving TDs at the end of his career.  Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith are going to be the no. 1 and the no. 2 in New York for the forseeable future, and early on this year, Manningham is probably going to be unable to keep Ramses Barden, a 3rd rounder in 2009, and Domenik Hixon from getting their reps.  If they struggle, Mario Manningham will get another crack at being a starting receiver for the Giants, but as of right now, his potential impact looks minimal from where I’m sitting. Potential: 1

3rd round, 97th pick: Andre Caldwell, Cincinnati Caldwell played the role of no. 2 receiver in the Bengals offense, which netted him 51 catches and 3 receiving TDs, but outside of catching a respectable 64% of targets, there’s no dimension to Caldwell’s production.  He outlasted Lavarnues Coles on the Bengals roster, which is cool, but he’s also going to fall behind TE Jermaine Gresham, WR Antonio Bryant, and will be in a dogfight camp battle for the slot receiver position with advanced rookie WR Jordan Shipley that I do not expect him to win.  Consequently, I’m not thinking he will make it to his second NFL contract.  Potential: 1

4th round, 126th pick: Lavelle Hawkins, Tennessee He’s a smaller receiver out of Cal who offers the Titans a nice deep threat on the outside, but is certainly not ahead of Kenny Britt or Justin Gage on the outside, and thus, his playing time doesn’t figure to greatly increase in 2010.  I think he’s got the potential to come off the bench and make a big play or two, but until he can bring some consistency to his offense, that’s about his limit to assist Vince Young in developing into a strong NFL quarterback.  Potential: 2

4th round, 128th pick: Keenan Burton, St. Louis Burton isn’t the accomplished player that Donnie Avery is, but as a fourth round pick in the same draft, he actually made an improvement in 2009 with an in-flux QB situation, and that bodes well for an improvement in 2010.  He’s still at least a year away from a breakout season, and his role in developing rookie Sam Bradford might be quite limited, but if he can make a handful of plays this year, he could emerge as Bradford’s go-to receiver someday.  Potential: 2

6th round, 174th pick: Josh Morgan, San Francisco As a second year WR, Morgan made it all the way up to 51 catches.  His DYAR production was the best among all San Francisco receivers last season.  I’m not sure he’s going to be a superstar someday, and I still want to see what Jason Hill can develop into before Morgan is declared a starter, but Morgan is the odds on favorite to emerge as the Batman to Michael Crabtree’s Superman.  Potential: 3

6th round, 205th pick: Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis More, I think, than Austin Collie, Garcon really benefited from Anthony Gonzalez being hurt last year.  Garcon brought the speed element back to the Indianapolis offense, and he remains the guy most likely to stay in the lineup in order to generate the big plays opposite of Reggie Wayne.  That’s his niche going forward.  Problem is, I don’t think he is good enough as a receiver to get a lot of looks with a healthy Gonzalez, and Collie, Dallas Clark, and Wayne.  Because of that, he doesn’t have all that much potential for the future.  Potential: 2

7th round, 224th pick: Steve Johnson, Buffalo Well, I think he’s more likely to get a roster spot in 2010 than James Hardy is, but Johnson’s reported potential just hasn’t turned into very much production.  He was pretty good in 2008, but did not accomplish very much in 2009, and could be looking at the waiver wire sooner rather than later.  Potential: 1

7th round, 226th pick: Chaz Schilens, Oakland Schilens is the gem/steal of the late rounds among 2008 receivers, and his production has been weighed down by constant injury and poor quarterback play.  Schilens himself is quite an incredible talent, and is really the true no. 1 WR on the Raiders.  Problem is, he’s hurt again right now for minicamp, and really needs to get out there and develop that rapport with Jason Campbell.  Schilens is the receiving talent that Campbell never had in Washington, and Campbell is the quarterback that the former Aztec has quite frankly never had.  Potential: 4

Free Fantasy Advice: Market Inefficiencies

flickr.com/Keith Allison

Here’s your now weekly public service post.  This list will be helpful for helping to come out ahead in your fantasy football draft.

Below, I’ve listed players who are being reasonably misvalued by the average draft position, compiled through thousands of mock drafts at FantasyFootballCalculator.com.  These are not my rankings of the players, but rather an explanation of why the average fantasy football player, who is generally very rational and predictable, will misvalue certain players.  I will not include kickers or defenses in this analysis, because though they are certainly misvalued, it’s not the kind of thing you’ll be spending one of your first seven picks on anyway.

Players who are being overdrafted

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons:  Turner is being taken on average with the third overall pick, and has not slipped further than seventh in any draft, but it’s probably unreasonable to expect first round type production from him.  The first assumption being made is that the Falcons, who were 4-12 just a year ago, will be able to pound out a bunch of wins on the ground.  That’s likely not accurate.  Secondly, the team is going to have to get Jerious Norwood more involved and that means less total carries for Turner.  People are convinced that Turner will get the goal line carries, and he probably will, but not in the quantity you’d expect from an elite fantasy player.  Let someone else make this pick.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals:  We all noticed the impact Fitzgerald made in the playoffs last year, but we now have five seasons of Fitzgerald in Arizona to know what kind of fantasy player he will be.  Seriously, he’s not a bad choice to be the first receiver off the board, but he’s been taken with the first overall pick in at least one draft.  There’s no reason to rush to add him before anyone else comes off the board: you’ll be just as happy with Randy Moss or Andre Johnson.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers:  Again, there is nothing wrong here with this player, at least not like in Turner’s case, but there’s no reason to make the selection in the first round if you are considering other options.  On average, Williams is off the board in most drafts before proven players like Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs, and even Brian Westbrook.  Throw Ronnie Brown into that group and you have 5 guys that have interchangeable value in seasonal leagues, so don’t feel like you have to rush in and draft Williams.  His upside is real, but no moreso than those other players, unless it’s a keeper league.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions:  He may be a freak, but he’s also a Lions receiver, and you probably shouldn’t touch him before the third round in most situations (again, assuming a non-keeper league).  Johnson might be good for a bunch of TD’s this year, but the 2nd round is going to be loaded with 10 TD type receivers.  Johnson’s a high upside player, but that upside might be 13 TDs, in which case, don’t pay a premium for the additional risk.  If there’s a run on receivers in the second round in your league, go for it.  Otherwise, let someone else overdraft him.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals:  The other Cards receiver is being overdrafted as well.  He’s a No. 2 receiver, and if you are going to take him ahead of any No. 1 WR, make sure that the No. 1 guy plays in an extreme rushing offense, such as Torry Holt, or Donnie Avery.  On average, he’s going ahead of Dwyane Bowe right now, and Bowe is a legitimate No. 1 fantasy receiver.  Boldin, on the other hand, probably should not be the first WR you draft, if you take him at all.  He’s a late 4th or 5th round pick, not a 3rd.

Terrell Owens, WR, Bills:  This one is obvious.  Like many experts, I think his TD catch value makes him a better fantasy option than teammate Lee Evans, but don’t try to make the Bills offense out to be a powerhouse that it is not.  This isn’t the 49ers, Philly, or Dallas, and Owens’ numbers are going to reflect that.  Owens isn’t a solid pick until round 6, at which point, he’s your No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy WR.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers:  He’s not even guaranteed to be the starter coming out of camp, so he might not be worth a pick at all.  Right now, he’s being chosen as a back end No. 2 running back, but this year, Ryan Grant is strictly mid-to-late round RB depth.  Don’t touch him before the 6th or 7th round, and after you already have picked your starters at the RB position.

Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys:  I implore you not to make Witten the first overall tight end taken.  This isn’t last year.  Conventional wisdom says he’s got to be the first tight end off the board, but there’s 5 or 6 TEs that all could end up with the highest number of fantasy points at the end of the year.  Also, he’s not fooling defenses in the NFL anymore, and consequently, his TD totals might not reflect the talented player he still is.

Players who are being underdrafted

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs:  Bowe is a legitimate No. 1 fantasy receiver in the wide open Chiefs offense, and if you think that Scott Pioli is for real, he might be the No. 1 most desirable receiver in a keeper league.  He’s a mid third round pick in most leagues, but you could justify taking Bowe in the early second, or as soon as wide receivers start coming off the board.

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts:  A very wide variance on where Manning is being targeted in drafts.  He’s not my no. 1 QB, not even my no. 2 QB, but you’d still lock him up before the end of the second round if he’s available.  He’s slipping to the 4th round in some drafts.  Hello!  You play to win the game, and Peyton Manning does that with your fantasy team.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins:  Ronnie Brown is probably the most talented RB in the league today, and he’s now two years removed from surgery on his ACL, which means he could be in for a huge season.  Right now, Ronnie Brown is a third round pick in most fantasy leagues, but I think he’s more of a back end first rounder or at the very least, a mid-second.  If he’s there when you pick in the third round, he’s easy pickings.

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers:  He’s no. 4 on my rankings list, and I’m sure he’s the same on most other lists.  But here’s the big difference with Rivers: he’s an elite fantasy quarterback just like Manning, just like Brady, and just like Brees.  In any given year in the next three, Rivers could be the No. 1 QB in fantasy football.  If you are in a keeper league, he shouldn’t get out of the top 18-20 picks.  In a seasonal league, where he belongs depends on how your league is valuing the QB position.  If any QB goes in the first round, Rivers becomes a second round value.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos:  Don’t worry about the competition at the RB position in Denver.  Moreno was not drafted in the top 12 by a team with a terrible defense so he could redshirt this season.  Behind the Denver line, 1000 yards seems like a bare minimum for him this season.  He’s a late second or early third round value, and you can probably lock him up in the fourth round the way fantasy drafts are breaking.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers:  AFC West offense is dominating this list, and well, have you seen the defenses in that division?  Vincent Jackson is a third round value in all formats, who is being picked like a fourth rounder currently.

LenDale White, RB, Titans:  White has lost a ton of weight in the offseason and he scored 10 times last season, which makes him a devastating fantasy back.  Thing is, a lot of owners will struggle to justify drafting a backup as early as this, but you can steal White in the 4th or 5th round and get a legitimate No. 2 fantasy back who happens to be a No. 2 on his own team.

Donnie Avery, WR, Rams:  Avery is going to miss the next 4-6 weeks due to an injury, which should tank his average draft position.  He was already a steal in most leagues, keepers especially, not coming off the board until the seventh round.  Even with him likely to miss a game or two, if you are sitting in the eight or ninth round and have the chance to add a number one target in an offense which has no complementary option, enjoy the fantasy championship this move can net you.