Jeff Ireland’s Miami Dolphins are Offseason Champions

I’m taking an in-depth look at what teams can specifically accomplish in free agency, starting with the highly active Miami Dolphins.

Miami Dolphins Offseason Additions:

LB	Ellerbe	28	Baltimore	9	7.0	1.0	Miami
S	Clemons	28	Miami	14	11.1	5.1	Miami
TE	Keller	29	NY Jets	18	12.1	6.2	Miami
LB	Wheeler	29	Oakland	14	9.2	3.3	Miami
WR	Wallace	27	Pittsburgh	28	24.9	19.0	Miami
WR	Gibson	26	St. Louis	12	12.9	6.9	Miami

The Dolphins are probably not done after frontloading the majority of their multi-year contracts.  Wallace, Ellerbe, and Wheeler all got five year deals while Brandon Gibson signed for three years.  Chris Clemons re-signed with Miami for two years.  Keller has the second-highest cap value for 2013 after Mike Wallace, because he’s a one year stopgap.  The Dolphins also re-signed QB Matt Moore for two years, although he’s not likely to see the second year of that contract with a cap value of almost $6 million in 2014 unless he’s the starter.

The Dolphins spent a lot of money, and most of the contracts are highly leveraged, meaning that the player has a lot more job security after year one than with the average free agent contract.  None of the players signed by the Dolphins will be 30 before the end of the 2013-14 NFL playoffs, so the downside risk of these deals isn’t really relevant to a discussion of the 2013 Miami Dolphins.  From 2014 on, the Dolphins will likely struggle to manage the cap.  Whether or not GM Jeff Ireland will be responsible for the cap problems he is creating this week depends on how well the 2013 Dolphins play.

Miami Dolphins Offseason Losses + Unsigned Players:

CB	Smith	26	Miami	20	20.3	14.3	Kansas City
T	Long	28	Miami	24	19.1	13.1
RB	Bush	28	Miami	21	16.7	10.7	Detroit
LB	Burnett	31	Miami	28	14.3	8.3
TE	Fasano	29	Miami	16	10.6	4.7	Kansas City
LB	Dansby	32	Miami	26	10.5	4.5
S	Amaya	25	Miami	2	4.9	-1.1
TE	Mastrud	26	Miami	3	4.6	-1.4
CB	McCann	26	Miami	3	4.6	-1.4
DT	McDaniel	28	Miami	6	4.6	-1.4
WR	Naanee	30	Miami	9	3.9	-2.1
WR	Moore	26	Miami	2	3.7	-2.3
OLB	Trusnik	29	Miami	6	3.2	-2.7
QB	Garrard	35	Miami	25	2.5	-3.5	NY Jets
WR	Gaffney	33	Miami	15	2.4	-3.6
T	Garner	28	Miami	3	2.2	-3.8
RB	Slaton	27	Miami	1	1.7	-4.2
T	Brown	27	Miami	1	1.7	-4.3
T	Murtha	28	Miami	2	1.4	-4.6
CB	Wade	29	Miami	3	0.9	-5.0
S	Culver	30	Miami	4	0.5	-5.5
OLB	Alama-Francis	29	Miami	1	-0.6	-6.5
G	Steinbach	33	Miami	5	-2.8	-8.8
G	Hicks	35	Miami	5	-5.5	-11.5

Most of Miami’s expiring contracts represent nothing more than roster fodder, as you see so many negative numbers (representing below average value) in that right-most column.  But the Dolphins made the decisions to release veterans Dansby and Burnett to create room for Ellerbe and Wheeler this season.  That’s not guaranteed to work out in the Dolphins favor.  They’re getting younger, but Dansby is still very much an impact player in this league, and while the Dolphins are likely skeptical about his health going forward, it’s easy to see the roster taking a step back at the linebacker position next season.

When analyzing the Dolphins moves, the fact that two of their signings necessitated cuts of quality veterans at the same position means that we’ve stripped down about half of the “activity” of the Dolphins to merely re-arraigning their own deck chairs.  The moves of substance have occurred at the wide receiver position, where they’ve added Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson.  As of the time of this blog, the Dolphins are still in the mix to retain their star left tackle, Jake Long.  But they’ve already lost their top running back, Reggie Bush, their top corner for a second straight offseason Sean Smith (following Vontae Davis), and lost TE Anthony Fasano, which prompted them to be involved for Dustin Keller at a higher cap number.

While the Dolphins set out to improve the depth and quality of their receivers, they might actually be less dangerous on offense without Bush and Fasano.  Mike Wallace gives them the type of receiver talent you cannot just replace (if you are the Steelers, that is), but he’s also not the kind of number one receiver that Vincent Jackson was last year.  He’s more of a wealthy man’s DeSean Jackson.  In past seasons, the Dolphins offense was inconsistent with the more versatile Bush and Fasano.  Wallace is not going to do anything to help the consistency.  That’s on the shoulders of Ryan Tannehill.

Overall, the receivers are unquestionably improved for the Dolphins, who suffered no losses of note at the position, managing to maintain their top two receivers from last year, Brian Hartline and Davone Bess.  Adding Brandon Gibson creates some additional upside at the position in three receiver sets.  But the money the Dolphins have tied up in their receivers is only sustainable over the next three seasons, while Ryan Tannehill is relatively affordable.  And despite the salary structure, it’s Tannehill who will be chiefly responsible for ensuring offensive efficiency and consistency in 2013, not Hartline or Wallace.

The bigger issue in my eyes (outside of Jake Long) is the glaring weakness the Dolphins have created for themselves on the edges of their defense.  As strong as the front seven has been in recent years, you can’t be so weak on the edges in the modern NFL.  It’s just too easy to isolate those players, and so the Dolphins brought in Falcons CB Brent Grimes for a visit.  Grimes is still a quality player in the NFL, but he isn’t Sean Smith at this point.  And while the Dolphins have two second rounders after trading Vontae Davis to the Colts last year, it’s going to mean at least one of them will be spent that the CB position — the first rounder may as well.  The other pick might need to be used in order to replace Bush (or Long) because the Dolphins are opening holes as quickly as they are plugging them.

The good news is that the story is far from finished in regards to this offseason, as an all in Dolphins team will be very dangerous in the AFC this year.  The problem is that the story so far is that the Dolphins have created a looming cap issue in the future without making their team more dangerous in the present to date.  The Dolphins can get a lot better really quickly now if they use the trade market, additional free agent moves, and the draft to grab value for the rest of the offseason.  But if the Dolphins cut off their activity at this point, all they’ve really done is shake up the roster, throw a ton of cash around, and not really improve.

2013 NFL Free Agency Complete Listing

This is a self produced list of all available free agents in anticipation of the start of the league year in a couple of hours.  The players are ranked by Approximate value above replacement, which takes Approximate value (available at pro-football-reference.com) as a three year moving average, and adjusts/penalizes for the age of the player.

The goal of scaling to a replacement level is to provide a very visual (and extremely age-dependent) picture of players who are likely to receive offers (above replacement = positive AVAR) and those who are unlikely to receive offers (below replacement = negative AVAR).

The system is 100% objective with no manual adjustments, so it has spit out some quirky results (such as Rey Maualuga being the highest rated Bengal over Andre Smith), but it’s designed to overall capture the way NFL prospects are valued by NFL teams, not to be a personal rankings list for myself.  Players are separated by team, but sorted by AVAR.

Enjoy!  I will try to keep this list updated as results roll in.

<last update: Wednesday, March 27, 1:20 PM EDT> (Most recent transaction update: Saints sign OLB Victor Butler)

All NFL Free Agents 2013
Pos.	Last Name	Age	Current Team	AV Rate	AVAR	AVAA	Signed w/Team
CB	Cason	27	San Diego	18	16.3	10.4	Arizona
CB	Powers	26	Indianapolis	12	12.9	6.9	Arizona
DE	Shaughnessy	27	Oakland	12	11.1	5.2	Arizona
LB	Brinkley	28	Minnesota	7	5.4	-0.6	Arizona
OLB	Alexander	30	Washington	11	5.3	-0.7	Arizona
QB	Stanton	29	Indianapolis	4	1.7	-4.2	Arizona
RB	Mendenhall	26	Pittsburgh	17	17.5	11.5	Arizona
S	Johnson	27	Arizona	8	7.7	1.8	Arizona
S	Amaya	25	Miami	2	4.9	-1.1	Arizona
S	Bell	35	NY Jets	21	0.9	-5.1	Arizona
WR	Cribbs	30	Cleveland	8	3.2	-2.8	Arizona
DE	Umenyiora	32	NY Giants	18	5.9	0.0	Atlanta
G	Reynolds	26	Atlanta	7	8.3	2.3	Atlanta
RB	Jackson	30	St. Louis	23	13.5	7.5	Atlanta
S	Moore	28	Atlanta	19	15.1	9.1	Atlanta
T	Baker	28	Atlanta	19	15.1	9.1	Atlanta
TE	Gonzalez	37	Atlanta	33	-0.1	-6.1	Atlanta
CB	Johnson	34	Baltimore	4	-4.7	-10.6	Baltimore
DE	Dumervil	30	Denver	22	12.9	6.9	Baltimore
DT	Canty	31	NY Giants	17	7.4	1.4	Baltimore
DT	Spears	30	Dallas	9	3.9	-2.1	Baltimore
S	Huff	30	Oakland	20	11.5	5.5	Baltimore
S	Ihedigbo	30	Baltimore	7	2.5	-3.5	Baltimore
CB	McKelvin	28	Buffalo	13	10.3	4.3	Buffalo
LB	Lawson	29	Cincinnati	19	12.9	6.9	Buffalo
CB	Munnerlyn	25	Carolina	14	16.6	10.7	Carolina
CB	Moore	26	Chicago	6	7.4	1.4	Carolina
CB	Florence	33	Detroit	13	1.3	-4.7	Carolina
DT	Edwards	32	Carolina	17	5.4	-0.5	Carolina
LB	Blackburn	30	NY Giants	10	4.6	-1.4	Carolina
QB	Anderson	30	Carolina	0	-2.3	-8.3	Carolina
S	Mitchell	26	Oakland	6	7.4	1.4	Carolina
TE	Hartsock	33	Carolina	5	-2.8	-8.8	Carolina
WR	Ginn	28	San Francisco	7	5.4	-0.6	Carolina
CB	Hayden	30	Chicago	9	3.9	-2.1	Chicago
CB	Bowman	29	Chicago	4	1.7	-4.2	Chicago
DE	McBride	28	New Orleans	6	4.6	-1.4	Chicago
DT	Collins	26	Chicago	3	4.6	-1.4	Chicago
LB	Anderson	30	Carolina	19	10.8	4.8	Chicago
LB	Williams	31	Denver	14	5.5	-0.5	Chicago
S	Zbikowski	28	Indianapolis	8	6.2	0.2	Chicago
T	Bushrod	29	New Orleans	30	21.1	15.2	Chicago
T	Scott	31	Chicago	10	3.0	-3.0	Chicago
TE	Bennett	26	NY Giants	17	17.5	11.5	Chicago
CB	Jones	30	Cincinnati	9	3.9	-2.1	Cincinnati
DE	Geathers	30	Cincinnati	21	12.2	6.2	Cincinnati
DE	Gilberry	29	Cincinnati	9	5.4	-0.5	Cincinnati
LB	Maualuga	27	Cincinnati	22	19.7	13.8	Cincinnati
OLB	Maybin	25	NY Jets	4	6.8	0.9	Cincinnati
T	Roland	30	Cincinnati	6	1.8	-4.2	Cincinnati
WR	Tate	26	Cincinnati	11	12.0	6.0	Cincinnati
CB	Owens	27	Atlanta	5	5.1	-0.8	Cleveland
DE	Kruger	27	Baltimore	7	6.8	0.9	Cleveland
DT	Bryant	28	Oakland	11	8.6	2.6	Cleveland
OLB	Groves	29	Arizona	13	8.4	2.5	Cleveland
TE	Davis	28	Chicago	8	6.2	0.2	Cleveland
TE	Barnidge	28	Carolina	3	2.2	-3.8	Cleveland
LB	Durant	28	Detroit	16	12.7	6.7	Dallas
LB	Sims	29	Dallas	12	7.7	1.8	Dallas
S	Allen	31	Pittsburgh	6	0.5	-5.5	Dallas
CB	Rodgers-Cromartie	27	Philadelphia	12	11.1	5.2	Denver
DT	Knighton	27	Jacksonville	15	13.7	7.8	Denver
DT	Vickerson	30	Denver	14	7.3	1.3	Denver
G	Vasquez	26	San Diego	19	19.4	13.4	Denver
LB	Bradley	30	Arizona	7	2.5	-3.5	Denver
S	Bruton	26	Denver	4	5.6	-0.4	Denver
WR	Welker	32	New England	43	20.3	14.4	Denver
C	Gandy	31	Detroit	3	-1.4	-7.4	Detroit
CB	Houston	29	Detroit	18	12.1	6.2	Detroit
DT	Jones	27	Seattle	15	13.7	7.8	Detroit
RB	Bush	28	Miami	21	16.7	10.7	Detroit
S	Quin	27	Houston	19	17.2	11.3	Detroit
S	Delmas	26	Detroit	14	14.8	8.8	Detroit
WR	Osgood	33	Detroit	1	-4.9	-10.9	Detroit
DT	Jolly	30	Green Bay	0	-2.3	-8.3	Green Bay
LB	Francois	28	Green Bay	4	3.0	-3.0	Green Bay
OLB	Jones	27	Green Bay	9	8.6	2.7	Green Bay
CB	McCain	27	Houston	6	6.0	0.1	Houston
FB	Jones	31	Jacksonville	3	-1.4	-7.4	Houston
S	Reed	35	Baltimore	36	4.9	-1.1	Houston
CB	Butler	27	Indianapolis	7	6.8	0.9	Indianapolis
CB	Toler	28	Arizona	7	5.4	-0.6	Indianapolis
DE	Sidbury	27	Atlanta	3	3.4	-2.5	Indianapolis
DT	Jean-Francois	27	San Francisco	4	4.2	-1.7	Indianapolis
G	Thomas	28	New England	6	4.6	-1.4	Indianapolis
NT	Franklin	33	San Diego	15	2.4	-3.6	Indianapolis
OLB	Walden	28	Green Bay	14	11.1	5.1	Indianapolis
QB	Hasselbeck	38	Tennessee	26	-4.7	-10.7	Indianapolis
S	Landry	29	NY Jets	16	10.6	4.7	Indianapolis
T	Cherilus	29	Detroit	22	15.1	9.2	Indianapolis
C	Meester	36	Jacksonville	17	-2.7	-8.6	Jacksonville
CB	Ball	28	Houston	8	6.2	0.2	Jacksonville
CB	Molden	28	Jacksonville	3	2.2	-3.8	Jacksonville
DT	Miller	26	Tampa Bay	15	15.7	9.7	Jacksonville
LB	Hayes	26	Chicago	15	15.7	9.7	Jacksonville
RB	Forsett	28	Houston	10	7.8	1.8	Jacksonville
WR	Shipley	28	Jacksonville	7	5.4	-0.6	Jacksonville
CB	Smith	26	Miami	20	20.3	14.3	Kansas City
CB	Robinson	31	Atlanta	20	9.3	3.3	Kansas City
DE	Jones	29	Kansas City	3	0.9	-5.0	Kansas City
DT	Devito	29	NY Jets	22	15.1	9.2	Kansas City
G	Schwartz	27	Minnesota	7	6.8	0.9	Kansas City
OLB	Jones	29	Kansas City	3	0.9	-5.0	Kansas City
QB	Daniel	27	New Orleans	0	0.8	-5.1	Kansas City
TE	Fasano	29	Miami	16	10.6	4.7	Kansas City
WR	Avery	29	Indianapolis	6	3.2	-2.7	Kansas City
DT	Martin	27	San Diego	12	11.1	5.2	Miami
G	Louis	28	Chicago	10	7.8	1.8	Miami
LB	Wheeler	29	Oakland	14	9.2	3.3	Miami
LB	Ellerbe	28	Baltimore	9	7.0	1.0	Miami
S	Clemons	28	Miami	14	11.1	5.1	Miami
T	Garner	28	Miami	3	2.2	-3.8	Miami
TE	Keller	29	NY Jets	18	12.1	6.2	Miami
WR	Wallace	27	Pittsburgh	28	24.9	19.0	Miami
WR	Gibson	26	St. Louis	12	12.9	6.9	Miami
FB	Felton	27	Minnesota	4	4.2	-1.7	Minnesota
G	Olsen	28	Indianapolis	3	2.2	-3.8	Minnesota
LB	Henderson	27	Minnesota	10	9.4	3.5	Minnesota
QB	Cassel	31	Kansas City	23	11.2	5.2	Minnesota
S	Sanford	28	Minnesota	12	9.4	3.4	Minnesota
T	Loadholt	27	Minnesota	21	18.9	13.0	Minnesota
WR	Jennings	30	Green Bay	27	16.3	10.3	Minnesota
WR	Simpson	27	Minnesota	11	10.3	4.4	Minnesota
CB	Arrington	27	New England	16	14.6	8.7	New England
CB	Talib	27	New England	14	12.9	7.0	New England
CB	Cole	30	New England	4	0.5	-5.5	New England
LB	Koutouvides	32	New England	3	-2.7	-8.6	New England
RB	Washington	31	Seattle	8	1.7	-4.3	New England
S	Wilson	34	Arizona	21	3.2	-2.8	New England
T	Vollmer	29	New England	28	19.6	13.7	New England
T	Svitek	32	Atlanta	7	-0.4	-6.3	New England
WR	Jones	26	Buffalo	8	9.3	3.3	New England
WR	Amendola	28	St. Louis	11	8.6	2.6	New England
CB	Lewis	27	Pittsburgh	11	10.3	4.3	New Orleans
LB	Humber	26	New Orleans	3	4.7	-1.3	New Orleans
LB	Herring	30	New Orleans	3	0.2	-5.8	New Orleans
OLB	Butler	26	Dallas	4	5.6	-0.4	New Orleans
TE	Watson	33	Cleveland	16	2.9	-3.1	New Orleans
CB	Ross	31	Jacksonville	11	3.6	-2.4	NY Giants
DT	Jenkins	32	Philadelphia	20	7.1	1.2	NY Giants
G	Boothe	30	NY Giants	14	7.3	1.3	NY Giants
LB	Rivers	27	NY Giants	9	8.6	2.7	NY Giants
LB	Connor	28	Dallas	11	8.6	2.6	NY Giants
QB	Carr	34	NY Giants	1	-6.0	-11.9	NY Giants
RB	Torain	27	NY Giants	5	5.1	-0.8	NY Giants
S	Mundy	28	Pittsburgh	7	5.4	-0.6	NY Giants
TE	Myers	28	Oakland	13	10.3	4.3	NY Giants
WR	Murphy	26	Carolina	12	12.9	6.9	NY Giants
G	Colon	30	Pittsburgh	4	0.5	-5.5	NY Jets
LB	Mauga	26	NY Jets	3	4.7	-1.3	NY Jets
NT	Garay	34	San Diego	14	0.0	-6.0	NY Jets
OLB	Barnes	29	San Diego	6	3.2	-2.7	NY Jets
QB	Garrard	35	Miami	25	2.5	-3.5	NY Jets
RB	Goodson	26	Oakland	7	8.3	2.3	NY Jets
RB	Hilliard	29	NY Jets	1	-0.6	-6.5	NY Jets
CB	Adams	25	Oakland	4	6.8	0.8	Oakland
DE	Hunter	30	Denver	8	3.2	-2.8	Oakland
DT	Walker	26	Atlanta	9	10.2	4.2	Oakland
DT	Sims	28	Cincinnati	7	5.4	-0.6	Oakland
LB	Roach	28	Chicago	19	15.1	9.1	Oakland
LB	Burnett	31	Miami	28	14.3	8.3	Oakland
LB	Maiava	26	Cleveland	8	9.3	3.3	Oakland
T	Barnes	31	Oakland	13	4.9	-1.1	Oakland
CB	Fletcher	27	St. Louis	13	12.0	6.1	Philadelphia
CB	Williams	29	Baltimore	16	10.6	4.7	Philadelphia
LB	Phillips	27	Carolina	3	3.4	-2.5	Philadelphia
NT	Sopoaga	32	San Francisco	18	5.9	0.0	Philadelphia
OLB	Barwin	27	Houston	16	14.6	8.7	Philadelphia
S	Phillips	27	NY Giants	15	13.7	7.8	Philadelphia
S	Chung	26	New England	11	12.0	6.0	Philadelphia
TE	Casey	29	Houston	11	6.9	1.0	Philadelphia
G	Foster	28	Pittsburgh	16	12.7	6.7	Pittsburgh
QB	Gradkowski	30	Cincinnati	5	1.1	-4.9	Pittsburgh
TE	Johnson	26	Pittsburgh	5	6.5	0.5	Pittsburgh
TE	Speath	30	Chicago	7	2.5	-3.5	Pittsburgh
CB	Cox	27	Jacksonville	12	11.1	5.2	San Diego
G	Rinehart	28	Buffalo	8	6.2	0.2	San Diego
RB	Woodhead	28	New England	22	17.5	11.5	San Diego
RB	Brown	32	San Diego	9	0.8	-5.1	San Diego
T	Dunlap	28	Philadelphia	9	7.0	1.0	San Diego
TE	Phillips	26	Dallas	5	6.5	0.5	San Diego
DT	Dorsey	28	Kansas City	17	13.5	7.5	San Francisco
LB	Skuta	27	Cincinnati	4	4.2	-1.7	San Francisco
S	Dahl	28	St. Louis	15	11.9	5.9	San Francisco
S	McBath	28	San Francisco	2	1.4	-4.6	San Francisco
WR	Moore	26	Miami	2	3.7	-2.3	San Francisco
DE	Avril	27	Detroit	22	19.7	13.8	Seattle
DE	Bennett	28	Tampa Bay	14	11.0	5.0	Seattle
DE	Hayes	28	St. Louis	7	5.4	-0.6	St. Louis
T	Long	28	Miami	24	19.1	13.1	St. Louis
TE	Cook	26	Tennessee	17	17.5	11.5	St. Louis
LB	Casillas	26	New Orleans	5	6.5	0.5	Tampa Bay
S	Goldson	29	San Francisco	28	19.6	13.7	Tampa Bay
TE	Crabtree	28	Green Bay	9	7.0	1.0	Tampa Bay
C	Turner	29	St. Louis	7	3.9	-2.0	Tennessee
DT	Hill	27	Detroit	7	6.8	0.9	Tennessee
DT	Pitoitua	28	Kansas City	7	5.4	-0.6	Tennessee
FB	Johnson	27	Tennessee	3	3.4	-2.5	Tennessee
G	Levitre	28	Buffalo	21	16.7	10.7	Tennessee
LB	Fokou	28	Indianapolis	10	7.8	1.8	Tennessee
QB	Fitzpatrick	31	Buffalo	33	17.5	11.5	Tennessee
RB	Greene	28	NY Jets	18	14.3	8.3	Tennessee
S	Pollard	29	Baltimore	16	10.7	4.7	Tennessee
TE	Walker	29	San Francisco	13	8.4	2.5	Tennessee
WR	Reynaud	28	Tennessee	3	2.2	-3.8	Tennessee
CB	Biggers	26	Tampa Bay	11	12.0	6.0	Washington
DT	Golston	30	Washington	8	3.2	-2.8	Washington
G	Lichtensteiger	28	Washington	15	11.9	5.9	Washington
T	Polumbus	28	Washington	14	11.1	5.1	Washington
T	Trueblood	30	Tampa Bay	10	4.6	-1.4	Washington
C	Legursky	27	Pittsburgh	9	8.6	2.7
C	Brown	30	St. Louis	9	3.9	-2.1
C	Faine	32	Cincinnati	12	2.5	-3.4
C	Berger	31	Minnesota	9	2.4	-3.6
C	Cooper	27	Tennessee	1	1.7	-4.2
C	Mruczkowski	31	San Diego	2	-2.0	-8.0
CB	Hall	30	Washington	25	14.9	8.9
CB	Porter	27	Denver	12	11.1	5.2
CB	Asomugha	32	Philadelphia	25	10.0	4.0
CB	Grimes	30	Atlanta	16	8.7	2.7
CB	Jenkins	28	Dallas	10	7.8	1.8
CB	King	26	Pittsburgh	6	7.4	1.4
CB	Middleton	27	Jacksonville	6	6.0	0.1
CB	Smith	28	Detroit	7	5.4	-0.6
CB	Gamble	30	Carolina	11	5.3	-0.7
CB	McCann	26	Miami	3	4.6	-1.4
CB	Routt	30	Houston	10	4.6	-1.4
CB	Adams	28	Arizona	6	4.6	-1.4
CB	Brown	34	Cleveland	23	4.1	-1.8
CB	Carter	27	Denver	3	3.4	-2.5
CB	Barnes	27	Detroit	3	3.4	-2.5
CB	Carr	30	San Diego	8	3.2	-2.8
CB	McDonald	28	Tampa Bay	4	3.0	-3.0
CB	King	26	Jacksonville	1	2.8	-3.2
CB	Jackson	26	St. Louis	1	2.8	-3.2
CB	Clements	34	Cincinnati	20	2.7	-3.2
CB	Jammer	34	San Diego	20	2.7	-3.2
CB	Mack	27	New Orleans	2	2.5	-3.4
CB	Spencer	31	Oakland	9	2.4	-3.6
CB	Trent	28	Washington	3	2.2	-3.8
CB	Coleman	30	Detroit	6	1.8	-4.2
CB	Youboty	29	Jacksonville	4	1.7	-4.2
CB	Tryon	29	NY Giants	4	1.7	-4.2
CB	Mouton	27	Tennessee	1	1.7	-4.2
CB	Hughes	28	NY Giants	2	1.4	-4.6
CB	Cox	28	Seattle	2	1.4	-4.6
CB	Lewis	28	Seattle	2	1.4	-4.6
CB	Jones	28	Washington	2	1.4	-4.6
CB	Wilhite	29	Chicago	3	0.9	-5.0
CB	Wade	29	Miami	3	0.9	-5.0
CB	Hanson	32	Oakland	9	0.8	-5.1
CB	Wilson	28	Dallas	1	0.6	-5.4
CB	McBride	28	Jacksonville	1	0.6	-5.4
CB	Newman	35	Cincinnati	20	0.5	-5.5
CB	Bartell	31	Detroit	6	0.5	-5.5
CB	Griffin	31	Washington	6	0.5	-5.5
CB	Mathis	33	Jacksonville	11	0.3	-5.7
CB	Trufant	33	Seattle	11	0.3	-5.7
CB	Lee	29	Detroit	2	0.2	-5.7
CB	Corner	30	Buffalo	2	-0.9	-6.9
CB	Woodson	37	Green Bay	29	-1.3	-7.3
CB	Sapp	32	Minnesota	5	-1.5	-7.4
CB	Coe	30	Dallas	1	-1.6	-7.6
CB	Winfield	36	Minnesota	19	-2.0	-8.0
CB	Madison	32	Pittsburgh	2	-3.3	-9.2
CB	McGee	33	Buffalo	3	-3.8	-9.8
DE	Idonije	33	Chicago	25	7.5	1.5
DE	Freeney	33	Indianapolis	23	6.5	0.5
DE	Applewhite	28	Carolina	8	6.2	0.2
DE	Abraham	35	Atlanta	33	5.8	-0.2
DE	Selvie	26	Jacksonville	4	5.5	-0.5
DE	Jackson	28	Detroit	6	4.6	-1.4
DE	Crowder	28	Tampa Bay	6	4.6	-1.4
DE	Scott	29	New England	7	3.9	-2.0
DE	Mitchell	29	Tampa Bay	7	3.9	-2.0
DE	Brown	26	Detroit	2	3.7	-2.3
DE	Tapp	29	Philadelphia	6	3.2	-2.7
DE	Johnson	32	Buffalo	11	1.9	-4.0
DE	Davis	30	Chicago	6	1.8	-4.2
DE	Benard	28	Cleveland	2	1.4	-4.6
DE	Ball	32	Tennessee	10	1.3	-4.6
DE	Vanden Bosch	35	Detroit	19	0.1	-5.9
DE	Charleston	30	Tampa Bay	3	-0.2	-6.2
DE	Carter	34	Oakland	13	-0.5	-6.4
DE	Moss	29	Oakland	1	-0.6	-6.5
DE	Tollefson	31	Oakland	4	-0.8	-6.8
DE	Ah You	31	St. Louis	3	-1.4	-7.4
DE	Parker	35	Cleveland	9	-3.9	-9.9
DE	Brock	35	Seattle	4	-5.9	-11.9
DT	Ellis	28	New Orleans	19	15.1	9.1
DT	Branch	29	Seattle	20	13.6	7.7
DT	Marks	26	Tennessee	12	12.9	6.9
DT	Okoye	26	Tampa Bay	9	10.2	4.2
DT	Toeaina	29	Chicago	12	7.7	1.7
DT	Johnson	29	Indianapolis	11	6.9	1.0
DT	Moore	27	Buffalo	7	6.8	0.9
DT	Neblett	25	Carolina	4	6.8	0.8
DT	Patterson	30	Philadelphia	13	6.7	0.7
DT	Douzable	27	Tennessee	6	6.0	0.1
DT	Landri	30	Philadelphia	12	6.0	0.0
DT	Thomas	28	Denver	7	5.4	-0.6
DT	Ayodele	30	New Orleans	11	5.3	-0.7
DT	Wynn	27	Tennessee	5	5.1	-0.8
DT	Kelly	33	Oakland	20	4.9	-1.1
DT	McDaniel	28	Miami	6	4.6	-1.4
DT	Jamison	27	Houston	4	4.2	-1.7
DT	Seymour	34	Oakland	22	3.6	-2.3
DT	Laws	28	St. Louis	4	3.0	-3.0
DT	Williams	33	Detroit	16	2.9	-3.1
DT	Scott	27	St. Louis	2	2.5	-3.4
DT	Schaefering	30	Dallas	7	2.5	-3.5
DT	McBean	29	Baltimore	5	2.4	-3.5
DT	Bannan	34	Denver	19	2.2	-3.7
DT	Foster	28	Indianapolis	3	2.2	-3.8
DT	Okam	28	Tampa Bay	3	2.2	-3.8
DT	Muir	30	NY Jets	6	1.8	-4.2
DT	Pryor	27	New England	1	1.7	-4.2
DT	Nwagbuo	28	Carolina	2	1.4	-4.6
DT	Coleman	34	Dallas	16	0.9	-5.0
DT	Hargrove	30	Green Bay	4	0.5	-5.5
DT	Evans	30	Minnesota	4	0.5	-5.5
DT	Eason	33	Arizona	10	-0.2	-6.2
DT	Richardson	29	NY Jets	1	-0.6	-6.5
DT	Cesaire	33	San Diego	8	-1.3	-7.3
DT	Edwards	34	Carolina	11	-1.4	-7.3
DT	Haynesworth	32	Tampa Bay	3	-2.7	-8.6
DT	Bulman	31	New England	1	-2.7	-8.7
DT	Bernard	34	NY Giants	6	-3.7	-9.6
DT	Warren	35	New England	5	-5.5	-11.5
DT	Holliday	38	Arizona	6	-9.3	-15.2
FB	Schmitt	28	Oakland	4	3.0	-3.0
FB	Baker	26	NY Jets	1	2.8	-3.2
FB	Cox	28	Atlanta	2	1.4	-4.6
FB	Larsen	29	New England	3	0.9	-5.0
FB	Polite	32	Atlanta	2	-3.3	-9.2
FB	Mughelli	33	St. Louis	3	-3.8	-9.8
FB	Hall	34	Tennessee	3	-5.1	-11.0
FB	McIntyre	34	Buffalo	2	-5.6	-11.5
G	Slauson	27	NY Jets	16	14.6	8.7
G	Green	27	San Diego	13	12.0	6.1
G	Harris	29	Tennessee	15	9.9	4.0
G	Rachal	27	Chicago	10	9.4	3.5
G	Britton	26	Jacksonville	7	8.3	2.3
G	Caldwell	27	Houston	8	7.7	1.8
G	Peterman	32	Detroit	20	7.1	1.2
G	Williams	28	St. Louis	8	6.2	0.2
G	Williams	27	Chicago	5	5.1	-0.8
G	Spencer	31	Chicago	13	4.9	-1.1
G	Scott	32	Philadelphia	16	4.8	-1.1
G	Cook	30	Dallas	9	3.9	-2.1
G	Moore	33	NY Jets	18	3.9	-2.1
G	Petrus	26	Tennessee	2	3.7	-2.3
G	Lilja	32	Kansas City	14	3.6	-2.3
G	Lutui	30	Tennessee	8	3.2	-2.8
G	Hadnot	31	San Diego	8	1.8	-4.2
G	Richard	29	New England	4	1.7	-4.2
G	Thomas	27	Indianapolis	1	1.7	-4.2
G	DeVan	28	Tennessee	2	1.4	-4.6
G	Wrotto	29	Chicago	3	0.9	-5.0
G	Bell	32	Cincinnati	9	0.8	-5.1
G	Herrera	33	Minnesota	9	-0.7	-6.7
G	Gallery	33	New England	9	-0.7	-6.7
G	Loper	31	Dallas	3	-1.4	-7.4
G	Carlisle	36	Oakland	20	-1.7	-7.6
G	Holland	33	Dallas	7	-1.8	-7.8
G	Kosier	35	Dallas	14	-1.9	-7.9
G	Steinbach	33	Miami	5	-2.8	-8.8
G	Dockery	33	Dallas	4	-3.3	-9.3
G	Davis	35	San Francisco	8	-4.3	-10.3
G	Yates	33	Cleveland	1	-4.9	-10.9
G	Wells	33	San Diego	1	-4.9	-10.9
G	Wragge	34	Baltimore	3	-5.1	-11.0
G	Womack	35	Arizona	5	-5.5	-11.5
G	Hicks	35	Miami	5	-5.5	-11.5
G	Williams	37	Baltimore	12	-6.2	-12.2
G	Hochstein	36	Kansas City	5	-6.9	-12.8
LB	Curry	27	Oakland	13	12.0	6.1
LB	Dansby	32	Miami	26	10.5	4.5
LB	Black	29	Tampa Bay	12	7.7	1.7
LB	Scott	33	NY Jets	25	7.5	1.5
LB	Ruud	30	Seattle	14	7.3	1.3
LB	James	32	Houston	20	7.1	1.2
LB	Grant	28	San Francisco	9	7.0	1.0
LB	Sylvester	25	Pittsburgh	4	6.8	0.8
LB	Smith	31	Jacksonville	16	6.8	0.8
LB	Hill	31	Seattle	16	6.8	0.8
LB	McIntosh	31	St. Louis	16	6.8	0.8
LB	Urlacher	35	Chicago	35	6.6	0.6
LB	Jordan	28	Philadelphia	8	6.2	0.2
LB	Guyton	28	San Diego	8	6.2	0.2
LB	Palmer	27	Detroit	6	6.0	0.1
LB	Barnett	32	Buffalo	17	5.4	-0.5
LB	Goff	28	Washington	7	5.4	-0.6
LB	McRath	27	Tennessee	5	5.1	-0.8
LB	Howard	30	Cincinnati	10	4.6	-1.4
LB	Bosworth	27	Jacksonville	4	4.3	-1.7
LB	Siler	28	Kansas City	5	3.8	-2.2
LB	Diles	28	Tennessee	5	3.8	-2.2
LB	Adkins	26	Atlanta	2	3.7	-2.3
LB	Witherspoon	33	Tennessee	17	3.4	-2.6
LB	Gaither	29	Oakland	6	3.2	-2.7
LB	Dobbins	31	Houston	10	3.0	-3.0
LB	Foote	33	Pittsburgh	16	2.9	-3.1
LB	Cole	26	St. Louis	1	2.8	-3.2
LB	Brown	27	Cleveland	2	2.6	-3.4
LB	Williams	27	Philadelphia	2	2.5	-3.4
LB	Mitchell	29	Minnesota	5	2.4	-3.5
LB	Johnson	30	Pittsburgh	6	1.8	-4.2
LB	Glenn	27	Baltimore	1	1.7	-4.2
LB	Sintim	27	NY Giants	1	1.7	-4.2
LB	Carpenter	30	New England	5	1.1	-4.9
LB	Shanle	34	New Orleans	16	0.9	-5.0
LB	Iwuh	29	Denver	2	0.2	-5.7
LB	Lenon	36	Arizona	25	0.0	-5.9
LB	Haggan	33	St. Louis	10	-0.2	-6.2
LB	Williams	29	Carolina	1	-0.6	-6.5
LB	Adibi	29	Tennessee	1	-0.6	-6.5
LB	Brown	30	Baltimore	2	-0.9	-6.9
LB	Fox	31	Houston	3	-1.4	-7.4
LB	Blackstock	30	Baltimore	1	-1.6	-7.6
LB	Fujita	34	Cleveland	10	-1.9	-7.8
LB	McCoy	31	Seattle	2	-2.0	-8.0
LB	Williams	33	San Diego	6	-2.3	-8.3
LB	White	32	New England	3	-2.7	-8.6
LB	Poppinga	34	Dallas	8	-2.8	-8.7
LB	Spikes	37	San Diego	21	-3.6	-9.6
LB	Ekejiuba	32	Detroit	1	-3.8	-9.7
LB	Peterson	37	Atlanta	12	-6.2	-12.2
LB	Brooking	38	Denver	16	-7.0	-12.9
NT	Cody	30	Houston	18	10.1	4.1
NT	Pouha	34	NY Jets	25	5.0	-1.0
NT	Hampton	36	Pittsburgh	22	-1.0	-6.9
NT	Kemoeatu	34	Baltimore	12	-1.0	-6.9
OLB	Phillips	32	San Diego	24	9.4	3.5
OLB	Zombo	26	Green Bay	7	8.3	2.3
OLB	Pace	33	NY Jets	25	7.5	1.5
OLB	Harrison	35	Pittsburgh	37	7.4	1.4
OLB	Trusnik	29	Miami	6	3.2	-2.7
OLB	Westerman	28	Indianapolis	4	3.0	-3.0
OLB	Nading	28	Houston	2	1.4	-4.6
OLB	Thomas	34	NY Jets	15	0.4	-5.5
OLB	Alama-Francis	29	Miami	1	-0.6	-6.5
OLB	Wilson	30	Washington	2	-0.9	-6.9
OLB	Haggans	36	San Francisco	14	-3.8	-9.7
QB	Campbell	32	Chicago	25	10.0	4.1
QB	Young	30	Buffalo	17	9.4	3.4
QB	Kolb	29	Arizona	13	8.4	2.4
QB	Smith	29	Pittsburgh	4	1.7	-4.2
QB	Hanie	28	Denver	2	1.4	-4.6
QB	Painter	28	Baltimore	2	1.4	-4.6
QB	McGee	28	Dallas	2	1.4	-4.6
QB	Edwards	30	Philadelphia	5	1.1	-4.9
QB	Quinn	29	Kansas City	3	0.9	-5.0
QB	Hall	28	Arizona	1	0.6	-5.4
QB	Palko	30	Kansas City	2	-0.9	-6.9
QB	Grossman	33	Washington	8	-1.3	-7.3
QB	Leinart	30	Oakland	1	-1.6	-7.6
QB	Clemens	30	St. Louis	1	-1.6	-7.6
QB	Beck	32	Houston	2	-3.3	-9.2
QB	McCown	32	New Orleans	1	-3.8	-9.7
QB	Boller	32	San Diego	0	-4.4	-10.3
QB	Leftwich	33	Pittsburgh	2	-4.4	-10.4
QB	McCown	34	Chicago	2	-5.6	-11.5
QB	Redman	36	Atlanta	4	-7.2	-13.1
QB	Feeley	36	St. Louis	1	-8.3	-14.2
QB	Batch	39	Pittsburgh	3	-11.2	-17.2
RB	Bradshaw	27	NY Giants	28	24.9	19.0
RB	Jones	26	Dallas	20	20.3	14.3
RB	Turner	31	Atlanta	29	15.0	9.0
RB	Hillis	27	Kansas City	16	14.6	8.7
RB	Wells	25	Arizona	9	11.7	5.7
RB	Benson	30	Green Bay	17	9.4	3.4
RB	Stephens-Howling	26	Arizona	8	9.3	3.3
RB	Smith	27	Detroit	7	6.8	0.9
RB	Hightower	27	Washington	7	6.8	0.9
RB	Jackson	28	Cleveland	8	6.2	0.2
RB	Jennings	28	Jacksonville	8	6.2	0.2
RB	Ringer	26	Tennessee	4	5.6	-0.4
RB	Hester	28	San Diego	6	4.6	-1.4
RB	Karim	27	Indianapolis	4	4.3	-1.7
RB	Bell	27	Chicago	4	4.2	-1.7
RB	Allen	25	Baltimore	1	3.9	-2.0
RB	Toston	26	Jacksonville	2	3.7	-2.3
RB	Choice	29	Buffalo	6	3.2	-2.7
RB	Addai	30	New England	8	3.2	-2.8
RB	Ware	28	NY Giants	4	3.0	-3.0
RB	Jacobs	31	San Francisco	10	3.0	-3.0
RB	Scott	29	Cincinnati	5	2.4	-3.5
RB	Grant	31	Green Bay	9	2.4	-3.6
RB	Barber	30	Chicago	6	1.8	-4.2
RB	Battle	30	San Diego	6	1.8	-4.2
RB	Williams	31	St. Louis	8	1.8	-4.2
RB	Leonard	29	Cincinnati	4	1.7	-4.2
RB	Slaton	27	Miami	1	1.7	-4.2
RB	Brinkley	28	San Diego	2	1.4	-4.6
RB	Lumpkin	29	NY Giants	3	0.9	-5.0
RB	Brown	28	Detroit	1	0.6	-5.4
RB	Bolen	28	Jacksonville	1	0.6	-5.4
RB	Parmele	28	Jacksonville	1	0.6	-5.4
RB	Moore	31	Indianapolis	5	-0.1	-6.1
RB	Booker	29	Chicago	1	-0.6	-6.5
RB	Cobbs	30	New Orleans	1	-1.6	-7.6
RB	Darby	31	St. Louis	1	-2.7	-8.7
RB	Morris	34	Detroit	8	-2.8	-8.7
RB	Ward	33	Houston	4	-3.3	-9.3
RB	Jones	35	Kansas City	8	-4.3	-10.3
RB	Taylor	34	Arizona	4	-4.7	-10.6
S	Sensabaugh	30	Dallas	17	9.4	3.4
S	Martin	29	Carolina	12	7.7	1.8
S	Rhodes	31	Arizona	17	7.4	1.4
S	Mikell	33	St. Louis	23	6.5	0.5
S	Landry	31	Jacksonville	14	5.5	-0.5
S	Lynch	28	San Diego	7	5.4	-0.6
S	Peprah	30	Dallas	11	5.3	-0.7
S	Smith	30	NY Jets	11	5.3	-0.7
S	Greene	27	Jacksonville	5	5.1	-0.8
S	Jarrett	24	Philadelphia	1	5.0	-1.0
S	Babineaux	31	Tennessee	13	4.9	-1.1
S	Elam	32	Kansas City	16	4.8	-1.1
S	Nolan	27	Chicago	4	4.2	-1.7
S	Washington	27	Kansas City	4	4.2	-1.7
S	Sanders	30	Arizona	9	3.9	-2.1
S	Leonhard	31	Denver	11	3.6	-2.4
S	Giordano	31	Oakland	11	3.6	-2.4
S	Williams	32	Washington	13	3.1	-2.8
S	Crocker	33	Cincinnati	16	2.9	-3.1
S	Demps	27	Houston	2	2.5	-3.4
S	Atogwe	32	Philadelphia	12	2.5	-3.4
S	Oliver	29	San Diego	5	2.4	-3.5
S	Barber	27	Houston	1	1.7	-4.2
S	Langford	27	Kansas City	1	1.7	-4.2
S	Nelson	27	Philadelphia	1	1.7	-4.2
S	Martin	28	New England	2	1.4	-4.6
S	Culver	30	Miami	4	0.5	-5.5
S	Francisco	30	Tennessee	4	0.5	-5.5
S	Hope	33	Atlanta	10	-0.2	-6.2
S	Corto	29	Buffalo	1	-0.6	-6.5
S	Barrett	29	New England	1	-0.6	-6.5
S	Coleman	31	Detroit	4	-0.8	-6.8
S	Bigby	32	San Diego	6	-0.9	-6.9
S	Smith	30	Tennessee	2	-0.9	-6.9
S	Ventrone	31	Cleveland	3	-1.4	-7.4
S	Considine	32	Baltimore	4	-2.1	-8.0
S	Barber	38	Tampa Bay	20	-6.1	-12.0
T	Richardson	27	St. Louis	19	17.2	11.3
T	Smith	26	Cincinnati	15	15.7	9.7
T	Winston	30	Kansas City	20	11.5	5.5
T	Justice	29	Indianapolis	13	8.4	2.5
T	Heyer	29	NY Jets	11	6.9	1.0
T	Smith	27	NY Jets	6	6.0	0.1
T	Gaither	27	San Diego	5	5.1	-0.9
T	McNeill	30	San Diego	10	4.6	-1.4
T	Harris	28	Houston	6	4.6	-1.4
T	Dombrowski	28	San Diego	6	4.6	-1.4
T	Starks	32	Pittsburgh	15	4.2	-1.7
T	Clark	28	Denver	5	3.8	-2.2
T	Keith	29	Arizona	6	3.2	-2.7
T	Locklear	32	NY Giants	13	3.1	-2.8
T	Omiyale	31	Seattle	10	3.0	-3.0
T	Otah	27	Carolina	2	2.5	-3.4
T	Whimper	30	Jacksonville	7	2.5	-3.5
T	Brown	32	Washington	11	1.9	-4.0
T	Henderson	29	San Diego	4	1.7	-4.2
T	Ojinnaka	29	St. Louis	4	1.7	-4.2
T	Brown	27	Miami	1	1.7	-4.3
T	Murtha	28	Miami	2	1.4	-4.6
T	Hunter	32	St. Louis	10	1.3	-4.6
T	McQuistan	30	Arizona	5	1.1	-4.9
T	Butler	30	Houston	4	0.5	-5.5
T	Cousins	29	Cleveland	2	0.2	-5.7
T	McKinnie	34	Baltimore	14	-0.1	-6.0
T	Essex	31	Indianapolis	5	-0.1	-6.1
T	Hills	29	Indianapolis	1	-0.6	-6.5
T	Robinson	29	New Orleans	1	-0.6	-6.5
T	Batiste	31	Arizona	3	-1.4	-7.4
T	O’Callaghan	30	Kansas City	1	-1.6	-7.6
T	Ugoh	30	NY Giants	1	-1.6	-7.6
T	Barron	31	Seattle	1	-2.7	-8.7
T	Black	33	Washington	5	-2.8	-8.8
T	Bridges	33	Arizona	4	-3.3	-9.3
TE	Davis	27	Washington	15	13.7	7.8
TE	Boss	29	Kansas City	13	8.4	2.5
TE	Pascoe	27	NY Giants	8	7.7	1.8
TE	Beckum	26	NY Giants	4	5.6	-0.4
TE	Morrah	26	Seattle	3	4.7	-1.3
TE	Mastrud	26	Miami	3	4.6	-1.4
TE	Mulligan	28	St. Louis	5	3.8	-2.2
TE	Potter	27	Jacksonville	3	3.4	-2.6
TE	Rosario	29	San Diego	6	3.2	-2.7
TE	Cooley	31	Washington	10	3.0	-3.0
TE	Miller	29	Jacksonville	5	2.4	-3.5
TE	O’Connell	28	Kansas City	3	2.2	-3.8
TE	Thomas	30	New Orleans	6	1.8	-4.2
TE	Pope	30	Pittsburgh	6	1.8	-4.2
TE	Heap	33	Arizona	12	0.8	-5.2
TE	Shiancoe	33	New England	12	0.8	-5.2
TE	Hill	29	Indianapolis	1	-0.6	-6.5
TE	Bajema	31	Baltimore	4	-0.8	-6.8
TE	Clark	34	Tampa Bay	12	-1.0	-6.9
TE	Heller	32	Detroit	6	-1.0	-6.9
TE	McMichael	34	San Diego	12	-1.0	-7.0
TE	Smith	31	Cleveland	3	-1.4	-7.4
TE	Humphrey	30	Oakland	1	-1.6	-7.6
TE	Spach	31	Jacksonville	1	-2.7	-8.7
TE	Lee	33	Cincinnati	4	-3.3	-9.3
TE	Graham	35	New Orleans	5	-5.5	-11.5
TE	Kelly	36	Atlanta	4	-7.2	-13.1
WR	Heyward-Bey	26	Oakland	16	16.6	10.6
WR	Young	24	St. Louis	8	11.9	5.9
WR	Lloyd	32	New England	27	11.1	5.1
WR	Robinson	28	Jacksonville	12	9.4	3.4
WR	Collie	28	Indianapolis	10	7.8	1.8
WR	Nelson	27	Buffalo	8	7.7	1.8
WR	Massaquoi	27	Cleveland	8	7.7	1.8
WR	Doucet	28	Arizona	9	7.0	1.0
WR	Edelman	27	New England	7	6.8	0.9
WR	Jenkins	31	Minnesota	15	6.2	0.2
WR	Ogletree	26	Dallas	4	5.6	-0.4
WR	Edwards	30	NY Jets	11	5.3	-0.7
WR	White	26	Indianapolis	3	4.7	-1.3
WR	Breaston	30	Kansas City	10	4.6	-1.4
WR	Hill	28	NY Jets	6	4.6	-1.4
WR	Smith	28	St. Louis	6	4.6	-1.4
WR	Henderson	31	New Orleans	12	4.3	-1.7
WR	Barden	27	NY Giants	4	4.2	-1.7
WR	Walter	32	Houston	15	4.2	-1.8
WR	Sims-Walker	29	Jacksonville	7	3.9	-2.0
WR	Aromashodu	29	Minnesota	7	3.9	-2.0
WR	Austin	25	Washington	1	3.9	-2.0
WR	Obomanu	30	Seattle	9	3.9	-2.1
WR	Naanee	30	Miami	9	3.9	-2.1
WR	Robiskie	26	Detroit	2	3.7	-2.3
WR	Butler	27	Seattle	3	3.4	-2.5
WR	Hixon	29	NY Giants	6	3.2	-2.7
WR	Hagan	29	Oakland	6	3.2	-2.7
WR	Schilens	28	NY Jets	4	3.0	-3.0
WR	Banks	26	Washington	1	2.8	-3.2
WR	Komar	26	Chicago	1	2.8	-3.2
WR	Turner	26	NY Jets	1	2.8	-3.2
WR	Miller	26	St. Louis	1	2.8	-3.2
WR	Branch	34	New England	20	2.7	-3.2
WR	Stroughter	27	Tampa Bay	2	2.5	-3.4
WR	Gaffney	33	Miami	15	2.4	-3.6
WR	Armstrong	30	Dallas	6	1.8	-4.2
WR	Williams	27	Arizona	1	1.7	-4.2
WR	Dillard	28	Detroit	2	1.4	-4.6
WR	Stovall	28	Jacksonville	2	1.4	-4.6
WR	Willis	29	Denver	3	0.9	-5.0
WR	Clowney	28	Buffalo	1	0.6	-5.4
WR	Swain	28	San Francisco	1	0.6	-5.4
WR	Stuckey	30	Arizona	3	-0.2	-6.2
WR	Camarillo	31	New Orleans	3	-1.4	-7.4
WR	Parrish	31	Tampa Bay	3	-1.4	-7.4
WR	Anderson	30	Washington	1	-1.6	-7.6
WR	Martin	31	Buffalo	2	-2.0	-8.0
WR	Johnson	32	Houston	3	-2.7	-8.6
WR	Logan	32	Detroit	2	-3.3	-9.2
WR	Stallworth	33	New England	4	-3.3	-9.3
WR	Davis	34	Chicago	3	-5.1	-11.0
WR	Moss	36	San Francisco	8	-5.8	-11.7
WR	Houshmandzadeh	36	Oakland	5	-6.9	-12.8
WR	Stokley	37	Denver	8	-7.3	-13.3

Will Quarterback Demand Ever Flatten?

It wasn’t that long ago that quarterback talent in the NFL wasn’t in great demand.  We’re not talking about the 1970’s here.  A decade makes a pretty big difference.

Over the last five years or so, quarterback demand has exploded driven by two main factors: schematic and rule alterations in the NFL that have made passing games more valuable than ever before, and the mass retirement or attrition of a generation of good quarterbacks.

While the Brady/Manning era has very much been a thrill to follow, the NFL never had a true quarterback dichotomy at the top before.  Joe Montana’s career overlapped with Dan Marino’s career which overlapped with with Warren Moon’s career which overlapped with Steve Young’s career which overlapped with Brett Favre’s career.  Never was the debate of “whos the best?” any more clear than it was over the last decade when Peyton Manning put up astronomical numbers on a year to year basis, until Tom Brady (and later Aaron Rodgers) began doing the same.  That clarity is in the past now with the latest influx of college talent, but first, lets take a step back to the early days of Manning-Brady and look at the quarterback landscape in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002.

From 1999-2002, there wasn’t a standard of excellence that would have separated the “haves” from the “have nots” based on quarterback acquisition.  The best two quarterbacks over this timeframe were Kurt Warner of the Rams and Rich Gannon of the Raiders.  The Rams appeared in two super bowls over this timeframe, and the Raiders progressively reached each level of the playoff field under Gannon.  It’s not that Warner and Gannon werent the most valuable players in the league, but during these years, perhaps the NFL’s best player was Marshall Faulk, a running back.  By approximate value, there were three quarterbacks among the fifteen most valuable players.

From 2009-2012, during the quarterback demand explosion, that number doubles and quarterbacks occupy the top three spots.

What makes the quarterback demand situation 10-15 years ago so different is that Gannon and Warner were both freely available for any team back then, and though they eventually married wide open passing systems, only Peyton Manning was drafted to lead a franchise.  He (along with Ryan Leaf) was considered one of a kind at the time.  But in the 1999 draft, teams started to address the value of the passing game when they drafted six quarterbacks in the first round that year, headlined in the first three picks by Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, and Akili Smith.

Or did it?  The mindset of NFL teams at the time arguably hadn’t changed at all.  Back then, the quarterback bust rate was solidly 50% for first rounders.  It was a big deal when six quarterbacks got drafted in the first round for the first time since 1983, but a generational shift in the league’s quarterback talent this was not.  At least, teams didn’t treat it as such.

Let’s take a look at two prospects, one picked in the 1999 draft, the other picked in 2005.  Quarterback A posted a completion percentage about four percentage points above the league average in his first five seasons.  Quarterback B would eventually have a season where he completed more than 104% of the league’s completion percentage, but it took him until his eighth season to do so.  If you ended each QB’s career at the point where their team’s gave up on them, you’d assume they had pretty much the same career.  Which is why I’m comparing the two first overall picks in those drafts, Tim Couch (A) and Alex Smith (B).

What happened here was the talent in the league shifted dramatically over the course of Smith’s career.  During Couch’s career, QB talent was largely stagnant: a passing yard in 1999 was worth pretty much the same as it was in 2003.  By 2011, a passing yard was worth so much less than it was in 2006.  Demand for quarterbacks spiked in the late aughts, and so Alex Smith’s “development” doesn’t look any different from Tim Couch’s from a environment-adjusted perspective.  This isn’t Smith’s fault, and he seems to have made it out alright, but who knows what would have happened to Couch’s career given the two additional offseasons Smith received to develop?

Why did QB demand spike?  Well, one of the major factors that happened was that many of the quarterbacks who dominated the statistical categories ten+ years ago weren’t drafted and developed and cultivated.  Rather, they developed in a survival of the fittest league, and were then signed to winning teams.  The QB draft class of 1999 largely flopped, and the two best picks in the class Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper, benefited from weak competition.  Trent Green thrived on his third team.  Brad Johnson was pretty darn good for two different teams.  Kerry Collins made it.  Teams, by and large, couldn’t develop young quarterbacks — which was most stark in the case of the Atlanta Falcons failing to get a consistent player out of Michael Vick, a generational talent.

Quarterback demand spiked because of rule changes and copycat effect, but also because of the failures of developmental prospects.  Teams who were going to win by throwing needed a higher grade of prospect, a more polished type of talent.  This, I believe, is why so many teams in that era won with veteran talent.  The problem was teams that won with veterans like the Rams (who got about five good seasons from Marc Bulger following Kurt Warner’s MVP years), Raiders, Redskins, Steelers (pre-Roethlisberger), Chiefs, Titans (post-McNair), Panthers, and 49ers all fell off the map at some point or another and ended up at the top of the draft.  Meanwhile, the Colts and Patriots and Eagles and Giants won year after year.

The veteran quarterback market died (and is now incredibly undervalued — the league has swung too far the other way).  Young, skilled quarterbacks roughly doubled in total value, measured by trade compensation.  In 2004, the Chargers were able to get two firsts and a third for Eli Manning (one of the firsts became Philip Rivers).  By 2012, the Rams got three first rounders for Robert Griffin III.  Twenty years ago, 37 year old veteran Joe Montana commanded a first round pick.  Now? Position players return basically nothing in terms of draft picks.  Young quarterbacks return a treasure trove of picks.

Now the question becomes: is this demand going to flatten anytime soon?

I don’t forsee a rule change swinging things back towards the running game and defense, and away from the passing game.  Instead, we see instances of teams looking to add athleticism to quarterbacking as a job requirement.  Of course, the same trend appeared the tame ten years ago with McNabb, Culpepper, and Vick, coaches just never took advantage of the athleticism offered to them ten years ago, and dual-skill sets quickly died off.

However, while demand for QB talent doesn’t show any sign of letting up, supply of young, talented passers have never been greater.  You see the effects of this by the fact that Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton made it out of the first 32 picks in 2011.  Then Russell Wilson made it into the 3rd round in 2012.  This year’s class isn’t quite as deep, but the overall supply of quarterback ability is putting roughly 5 starter quality prospects into the talent pool on a yearly basis.  It wasn’t anything ten years ago to expect to get one per year.

One of two things is going to happen to the quarterback market with increased supply: either quarterback cost (in terms of draft picks) will begin to drop, or quarterback skill sets are going to get so highly specialized that it will become much harder to separate quarterback from coach (because those teams that don’t marry systems to players will not be able to compete with those who do).  We saw a bit of that from the Redskins and 49ers this past season, but as of right now, we can’t know for sure if it’s a long term trend.  It’s possible that a quarterback in 2015 will simply be cheaper to acquire than one in 2012, and that teams will start to pay to keep proven commodities (i.e. the Flacco trade) instead of paying to acquire new talent (i.e. every first round of every draft for the previous six years).

In the short term, it is clear that demand is going to continue to rise as opposed to flatten.  Teams like the Jets, Bills, Cardinals, Browns, and Chiefs cannot compete with the perennial contenders at all, not to mention the ones having great years.  Quarterback performance is reaching the critical point where having one simply isn’t enough to compete, because there aren’t enough wins to steal from teams that don’t have quarterbacks.  The Patriots can continue to steal wins from the Dolphins, Bills, and Jets, but as Ryan Tannehill develops and the Jets and Bills can address their QB situations, those divisional wins will be tougher to get, and as Tom Brady ages, they might not come at all.  End dynasty.

Teams that don’t have quarterbacks are going to have to get talent efficiently, while teams that do are going to have to build at a faster rate than other “haves.” If the current crop of coaches cannot win with the available talent supply, expect an influx of coaching talent from the college ranks to force out the current coaches.  QB supply and demand remains an endless struggle.  Now it’s just a struggle over-flushed with talent.

Week Two FA Recap: Why the Bengals might be becoming a model Small-Market NFL Franchise

The Cincinnati Bengals pretty clearly emerged as the free agency winner of the second week of this NFL league year.  One week ago today, we all freaked out collectively when the Bengals — awash in cap space — did not make a competitive move early in free agency.

It appeared that the Bengals were opting to be cheap and not spend money in anticipation of the NFL’s cash spend minimum going into effect in 2012.  But after free agency’s second week, we’ve seen that the Bengals actually were looking to spend money.  They were just planning to avoid overspending.

In fact, the Bengals have shown a rare competency to supplement their roster with free agent acquisitions while allowing their own free agents to go be overpaid elsewhere.  Last year the Bengals lost CB Johnathan Joseph to the Texans.  Unfortunately, Joseph played like an All-Pro in Houston, and the Bengals may have lost their gamble when the lost to the Texans twice in 2011.  But they have stayed the course, opting to let defensive ends Frostee Rucker (Cleveland), Andre Caldwell (Denver) and Jonathan Fanene (New England) take their talents elsewhere, while opting not to offer a deal to Cedric Benson.  What the Bengals have done differently this year is that they’ve been willing to spend on undervalued players to replace what they lost, and have been willing to spend more on coaching and on scouting then in the past to ensure the long-term success of the organization.

They’ll pay BenJarvus Green-Ellis just $3 million per year to play running back for them, but that’s more than he could have gotten from New England to stick as a backup.  Green-Ellis is probably worth a lot more than that to a team with a hole at RB, but the Bengals named their price and got him locked up for less than FA target Michael Bush signed for with Chicago.  They replaced Fanene and Rucker by signing former 1st round bust Jamaal Anderson, who was taken high because he flashed pass rushing skills, but at age 26, can really handle an edge rushing attack.  Because teams in the AFC North prefer to use a stretch running game, Anderson is a good pickup.  They also signed another former bust Derrick Harvey, who was most recently a Bronco, to replace what physical ability they lost in Rucker.  With the cash savings, they were able to make a competitive offer for — and lock up — their own no. 2 DT Pat Sims, who wasn’t a priority re-signing, but when the cash came available, the Bengals spent it.

The Bengals also managed to upgrade at left guard, turning Nate Livings — who signed with Dallas for 5 years/$19 million — into veteran Travelle Wharton, who they got at 3 years, just under $10 million.

And most importantly, the Bengals managed to re-sign two key defensive parts who actually took offers from other teams; S Reggie Nelson, and LB Manny Lawson, who re-signed today.

The Bengals were fortunate to be in the playoffs last year, but they are a better team right now than they were at this time last year, and with Baltimore and Pittsburgh struggling so hard against the cap to simply tread water in the declining AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals have separated themselves from the Cleveland Browns — an organization whom which they were neck and neck with at the start of last season — and have pushed themselves up into the discussion with the Steelers and Ravens.

When you compare the work of the Bengals to a team that did all it’s damage in the first week of FA, such as the Bucs, before turning it’s attention to the draft, you come away with a better concept of just how well the Bengals’ offseason has gone to date.

Like the Bengals, the Bucs’ cap flexibility was near the top of the league, and they evaded criticism from fans by quickly getting involved in the FA market for three big names: WR Vincent Jackson, G Carl Nicks, and CB Eric Wright.  By frontloading the guaranteed money in those free agent contracts, the Bucs were able to leverage their cap position to have the most flexibility in the future.  That made those moves very defensible.

But it also caused the Bucs to sit out the part of free agency where the Bengals were finding all the values, such as BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  The Bucs weren’t replacing their own free agents by spending cap room, they were bringing in parts to an largely established, but under-producing roster.  That means the success or failure of the 2012 and 2013 Tampa Bay Buccaneers is tied directly to the roster that made the 2010 Bucs a 10 win team, and the 2011 Bucs a 12 loss disaster.  It minimizes the kind of impact that the Bucs could have from the players like Vincent Jackson who they spent a ton of available cap room to get.  Furthermore, the backloaded-ness of the non-guaranteed cap dollars in the Jackson, Wright, and Nicks deals create a situation — perhaps a likely situation — where the Bucs tear down their current roster after the 2013 season with a lame-duck coach and new personnel department.

I feel the Bucs would have been a lot better off taking the Bengals approach to free agency: don’t act in the first week.  Eat the PR hit that comes from being perceived as a team who is cheaping out.  You can live with that perception of being frugal, trust me.  That’s not a perception you changed when you signed a bunch of large FA contracts but refused to guarantee any money beyond the 2013 season.  And then with all that cap room in the second week, go make sure your own valuable contributors are paid, that you aren’t shaping your draft plans too much by spending money in free agency, and that you lock up a solid amount of ‘Plan B’ roster options to deals of 2, 3, or 4 years in length.  I don’t believe getting Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks — two of the highest rated free agents — does much to save a roster that was already pretty dependent on it’s quarterback, Josh Freeman, and on an underachieving TE acquisition from the 2009 season, Kellen Winslow Jr.  The Bucs OL played well at times last year, maybe the best performing unit on the field.  You were already overpaying RG Davin Joseph and RT Jeremy Trueblood.  Now you have one of the most expensive OLs in the league, and you haven’t done anything to guarantee it’s future performance.  The Bengals have done more for the performance of their offense with less money spent, and actually have spent handsomely to give defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer some real talent he can work with in 2012.

The Bengals may not need to win the AFC North to make it back into the postseason again.  However, they’ll likely need to do better than the third place finish that earned them the AFCs 6th seed in 2011.  But with Baltimore and Pittsburgh in reach (0-4 against those combined opponents in 2011, accounting for exactly half of the Bengals 2011 defeats), the Bengals have propelled themselves into that conversation with an outstanding second week of free agency.

Building a team out of what’s left in the FA Market

Can a team with no cap committment use the FA market to build a winner?  The answer is not clear, but a two-deep depth chart could be created using only players still looking for a job, and in many ways, such a roster would rival a lot of teams sitting around the league average.

Obviously in a real game, this team would have no stars, and it would be easily schemed against by pro coordinators.  But the larger concern is whether or not a team can be made out of players without a contract that rivals current NFL teams.

In parenthesis, I have provided the cumulative AV rating of a two deep (46 players total) roster in anticipation of a full draft class.

Quarterback (55) – Vince Young, Donovan McNabb

This team gets two guys at quarterback who have each won plenty of games in this league (both are well above .500 as starting QBs in the NFL).  Neither is ideal as a starter at this point, but at the same time, neither deserves to be available at this point in the league year.  We’re happy to have them.

Running backs (43) – Cedric Benson, LaDainian Tomlinson

Cedric Benson is a good pickup for this team, although he doesn’t have a ton left in his legs heading into his eighth season.  Tomlinson is still a major contributor in the passing game, but a high percentage of the carries on this team would end up going to an undrafted rookie, and not to a RB currently on the FA market.

Fullbacks (7) – Mike Sellers

Mike Sellers could captain the special teams unit and can still catch the ball in the flat.  It’s odd that the FB market went so much quicker than the RB market.  Sellers is unlikely to find a job in this league.

Wide Receivers (58) – Braylon Edwards, Mike Sims-Walker, Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton

There’s no quality number one receiving options on the market, but there are three guys on this team who have very recently been go to targets on NFL teams.  Braylon Edwards still has a lot of career left, he’s under the age of 30, as is Sims-Walker.  Williams and Crayton are veteran receiving options.

Tight Ends (42) – Dallas Clark, Jeremy Shockey

I’m excited about the tight ends still available.  Dallas Clark doesn’t fit of a lot of systems, which is why he is still out there, but he would be an excellent slot receiver H-back combination in this offense.  Shockey is more of an in-line tight end.  This team would probably end up starting two tight ends.

Offensive Tackles (72) – Marcus McNeill, Kareem McKenzie, Barry Richardson, Demetrius Bell

Plenty of injury concerns at the tackle position for our team.  McNeill and Bell both can’t stay healthy.  Richardson is a good option off the bench.  Kareem McKenzie might be done.  But he’s the one guy of this group who has showed up and played consistently each of the last eight years, making him the easy first choice at RT.

Offensive Guards (56) – Kyle Kosier, Vernon Carey, Jake Scott

I’m very excited about having a chance at Kyle Kosier, who has recent experience at both left and right guard.  Vernon Carey is a swing player of sorts, who might end up playing tackle if McNeil and Bell can’t stay healthy.  If so, I’d have no problem with Jake Scott stepping into my starting lineup.

Centers (38) – Dan Koppen, Andre Gurode

Dan Koppen is a former pro-bowl center from a super bowl team.  If healthy, he and Kosier would combine to make an interior two guys that very few other teams could match.  Gurode served in a backup role last year for the Ravens, but I would be comfortable with him starting for me.

Nose Tackles/3-techs (70) – Kelly Gregg, Amobi Okoye, Aubrayo Franklin, Luis Castillo

There’s a lot here at the defensive tackle position.  Okoye can get after the quarterback and is just now coming into his own.  Franklin is scheme versatile, and can replace Gregg in either a 3-4 or 4-3.  Castillo has health concerns, but would be an interesting projection as a three technique.  This group also gives us the flexibility to play a multiple defense, necessary because of a lack of true pass rushers.

Defensive Ends (78) – Shaun Ellis, Andre Carter, Jason Hunter, Matt Roth,

I have to grab the Ellis/Hunter LE duo to support more pure pass rushers in Carter and Roth.  This becomes a weakness of the team, although not nearly the weakness it probably should be considering that Carter, Hunter, and Roth all can get after the passer a little bit still.

Linebackers (117) – E.J. Henderson, David Hawthorne, Geno Hayes, Quentin Groves, Bradie James, Gary Guyton

The strength of the team.  Henderson and Hawthorne are an excellent ILB group for sub packages.  Geno Hayes is just 25 and is already a quality starter in this league, albeit coming off a poor season.  Groves is a great backup who can help in blitz package schemes and isn’t yet thirty.  James is over the age of 30, but can get after the passer as well.  Guyton has been a nice contributor for the Patriots over the last four years.

Cornerbacks (61) – Terence Newman, Bryant McFadden, Alan Ball, Justin King

This is where we start to get to the point where we can’t build a great defense.  That’s an excellent linebacker level we were able to build.  But this group of cover guys can only achieve success with the presence of a great pass rush.  This team’s best pass rushing duo is Andre Carter and Jason Hunter.  That wouldn’t be the worst group in the league, but it also wouldn’t make the top 28.  And then it’s on Terence Newman and Bryant McFadden to wear the treadmarks of the opposing defense.

Safeties (81) – Yeremiah Bell, Chris Harris, Jim Leonhard, Abram Elam

For as weak as teams are claiming the secondary market to be, that’s a pretty strong group of available safeties.

Kicker (0) – Neil Rackers
Punter (0) – Daniel Sepulveda
Long Snapper (2) – Ken Amato

Cumulatively, this team would be as deep as any team in the entire NFL.  It’s problematic though that this team could not rush the passer, can’t stop the pass, and would ultimately find itself in shootouts with Vince Young or Donovan McNabb at quarterback.  One thing this team would be excellent at is stopping the run.  There are a ton of linebackers and box safeties out on the market, and the defensive lineman still out there are aging, but are disciplined and can hold at the point of attack.

This would be the oldest team in the league, by far.  But it would also be the one least affected by injury to its starters, so that would curb the effects of being an old team a considerable amount.

I would expect this team to win between 6 and 8 games per season.  Currently, between 1/8th and 1/4th of the league would be expected to win less than that.  Which means that a team built entirely off of free agent scraps, and whose only limitation is no existing contracts could not only compete in the modern NFL, but could beat about 5 or 6 NFL teams consistently.

NFL Free Agency 2012: Not winning

Yesterday’s article on free agency winners can be read here.  Today, it’s six teams that probably hurt themselves more than they helped, plus two bonus teams who are going to end up on a list of FA losers, but don’t really deserve to.

Houston Texans

The Texans were decimated by free agency, losing Mario Williams, Mike Brisiel, Jason Allen, and Joel Dresseen against their wills, and making the conscious decision to move Eric Winston and Demeco Ryans to avoid having to make them salary cap casualties in a year.  The Texans have enough depth to weather those losses, but now their depth at all positions has been eliminated by circumstances.  Luckily, with the draft still to go, the Texans aren’t looking to fill holes so much (they have to take a receiver early), so they can stay nice and tight to their draft board and try to replicate their cornerstone draft from 2006 (y’know, the one where they got Winston, Ryans, Williams, and Owen Daniels in the first place).

Just a year after going from one of the worst units we’ve ever seen to one of the best in the NFL, the Texans defense was the hardest hit by the losses and may reside somewhere around the middle of the pack in 2012.  The Texans could live with that.  The bigger problem from where I’m sitting is that Matt Schaub is in a contract year coming off of injury, and the Texans will be starting two different offensive linemen next year, lack depth at TE that was once a hallmark of their roster, and figure to be breaking in a rookie receiver like Kendall Wright or Stephen Hill.  The Texans were one of the NFL’s best teams last year.  Now they are a longshot to make it back to the playoffs.  It will be interesting to see if Gary Kubiak really did get off the hot seat last season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I was really hesitant to put them on this list at all, because the Bucs spent a lot of money (as the league will mandate starting in 2013), and didn’t really kill their cap positions.  But none of their major signings (Vincent Jackson, Eric Wright, and Carl Nicks) really make them all that much better.  With Jackson, if the Bucs were going to bring in anyone to mentor a young talented receiving corps, it had to be someone accomplished.  But will the Bucs throw the jump balls downfield that Vincent Jackson loves to go and get from his time in San Diego?  That’s not so clear.

Eric Wright, meanwhile, had an awful end to his one season in Detroit, following an awful end to his more promising time in Cleveland.  And Wright just got a lot of money from the Bucs for once masquerading as a shut down man-to-man corner.  Nicks is the safest investment of the group, in that unless he does something silly off the field — or gains a ton of weight — it won’t be obvious to even the trained eye whether he is dominating his competition, or just collecting a paycheck.  When you send big money interior offensive lineman to small markets, you’ll never, ever be criticized.  Except of course by the poor soul who makes fun of small market teams for having poor attendance.

The Bucs will be in good cap shape come 2014, but Josh Freeman needs to win now, and it’s not clear that the Bucs’ spending brought him much help.  Of course, Jackson will only be as good as Freeman makes him, to it’s probably fair to put the ball in #5’s court.

New York Giants

Oh, boy.  Here we go.  Since Super Bowl 46 concluded, the Patriots and Giants drew up offseason plans that could be described as diametric opposites.  The Patriots let the market set then started to amass talent.  The Giants locked up Terrell Thomas, then re-signed David Carr, then brought in Martellus Bennett.

The Giants play in a division where they (like the team that’s next on the list) have to do something.  The Cowboys didn’t go full out to make changes, they just released an ineffective corner for cap room, then gave big money to a much better corner.  The Giants had great success last year watching guys walk in free agency and feeling comfortable about the roster they had, but that’s because the ball was in the Eagles and Cowboys’ court last year to prove they could catch the Giants.  And even though the Giants are super bowl champs, they were fortunate to win the division, and likely entered free agency as the second or third best team in the NFC East.  What worked for Jerry Reese in 2011 likely cannot work for him in 2012, and now, they are clearly the third best team in their own division.

Except maybe it’s not so clear…I hear the Redskins are getting a quarterback.

Washington Redskins

The problem is that the Redskins have no clue how to build around that quarterback.  It’s not for lack of effort: Mike Shanahan’s whole plan following the Donovan McNabb debacle was to step back, keep continuity on his roster at quarterback, and build around a known weakness.  The Redskins had mixed results to start the 2011 season, but by mid-season, mixed results turned to bad results, and Mike Shanahan started to spend time watching college tape instead of his own game film.  Well, as someone who has broken down every Redskins game the past four seasons, I can assure him he didn’t miss anything: Shanahan failed to put the talent around Rex Grossman that he tried to.

Because they’ve struggled for so long, the Redskins are a better fit for a guy like Robert Griffin than the Colts are for a guy like Robert Griffin; there’s just more talent on the Redskins roster than there is on the Colts and Browns.  Unfortunately for Redskins fans, add the Rams to that list and that about concludes the “list of teams the Redskins have more talent than.”  Two of those teams are in about as clear of a rebuilding situation as you can possibly be in.  The other also has a former coach atop it’s personnel department.  So it’s fair to put that one on Mike Shanahan (and Mike Holmgren).

Now, the Redskins’ problem is that they hardly have any former first round picks on their roster.  They ran LaRon Landry out of town one year after running Carlos Rogers out of town one year after running Jason Campbell out of town.  They have Brian Orakpo, Trent Williams, and Ryan Kerrigan.  They have Fred Davis and DL Jarvis Jenkins representing the second round.  They’ll have Robert Griffin III.  And that’s it.  They won’t pick again in the first round until 2015.  And by then, Shanahan will have run Orakpo and Davis out of town.  So Griffin is pretty much doing this by himself.

Which is why the Redskins needed to bring in a lot of talent from other teams to make up for what they don’t have in draft picks.  So they spent more than $11 million in cap on Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan, and resigning backup DL Adam Carriker (a former first round pick!) on the first day.  Exciting.  Well, I suppose we’ll all know how good Robert Griffin III truly is in short time.

Cleveland Browns/Arizona Cardinals

The Browns and Cardinals owe it to their quarterback situations to create the best possible situations for them to succeed in, and for the Browns, that apparently meant to skip free agency entirely, while for the Cardinals, it meant “try to build the worst offensive line that money can buy.”

The Browns at least have an excuse that they will be doing the draft hardcore now that they weren’t able to get Robert Griffin, and so they don’t want to add mediocre veterans to that mix and block potential rookies who need the playing time to develop.  But it’s hard to say exactly for sure what kind of timetable the Browns are on.  Furthermore, when you have the fourth overall pick, and you know who the top three picks are going to be, you should be able to incorporate that selection into your free agency plans.  The Browns did not, assuming they even bothered to make a free agency plan.

What the Cardinals did was worse though.  They signed Adam Snyder to play RG, resigned Levi Brown with the intent of moving him back to RT, and let Brandon Keith walk (he remains unsigned).  The Cardinals have an awful offensive line, and they signed D’Anthony Batiste, an awful backup, to be a backup.  It’s going to be Kevin Kolb’s responsibility to get the ball out quick for this group, and when that plan A inevitably fails, then it will be John Skelton’s turn.

Controversial Omissions

New Orleans Saints – The Saints are being mentioned in league circles as a loser in free agency because of one fact: the sanctions from the NFL on their franchise happened at a time where they were trying and failing to get franchise player Drew Brees under contract.  That’s some bad PR.

Thing is, while wearing the exclusive franchise tag, Brees is effectively under contract.  He doesn’t have to report to camp if he doesn’t sign his tender, sure, but he’s Drew Brees, quarterback of the Saints.  You do not have to worry about him.

The Saints have done just fine in free agency with limited cap room.  Their biggest challenge lies ahead with the loss of Sean Payton for the season and possible suspensions for their defensive players, the Saints could be very thin on that side of the ball in 2012.  However, the Saints could be a big player in free agency late, because in the NFL, suspensions without pay (or with forfeiture of pay) free up team salary.

Miami Dolphins – Allow me to defend the Dolphins here for a moment: the only reason we perceive the Dolphins’ offseason as a catastrophic failure while we look at the Chiefs offseason as a rousing success is because the Dolphins’ owner is a little bit green and happens to put his franchise is a tough spot with his words too often.  One of the two teams improved immensely at the quarterback position in free agency.  It wasn’t the Chiefs.

The addition of David Garrard was a pretty smart move by Jeff Ireland, who needs to start stringing together smart moves in order to win games and keep his job.  Ignoring the fact that one of the best FA QBs was on Ireland’s roster (Chad Henne), no team except the Broncos improved by as much at the QB position as the Dolphins did going from Matt Moore to Garrard.  Garrard is also enough of a veteran to get out of the way next year for Ryan Tannehill (or whoever) to play quarterback.

The Dolphins really do have a good team, and made the correct decision to trade Brandon Marshall while only 31 teams know he’s not good enough to justify the headache he gives his quarterback, instead of 32 (sorry, Chicago).  They aren’t a good organization, or one that seems to have any idea how to win in the long term.  But for 2012, they’ve given themselves a fighting chance.

NFL Free Agency 2012: Winning!

I don’t have an objective system to grade free agency like I do the draft, but I take an objective approach to charting what happens during free agency, and that gives me a pretty good concept of who wins and loses these deals.  There will be teams listed on this list of winners who made a bad signing or two.  What I’m looking for here are teams that either improved their salary cap position for the future without losing a significant amount of talent, added a ton of talent without hurting their cap position, or in the best of cases, did both.

New England Patriots

Very quietly, the Patriots will bring more veteran talent into training camp in 2012 than any team in the NFL.  Like the Giants, the AFC Champion Patriots entered free agency as a middle of the pack roster, arguably not in the ten best teams in the NFL.  Two weeks later, I have the Patriots as the team with the most talent on it.

Only the Patriots could make those kind of gains, and do it so quietly, that you didn’t even know they were making moves at all.  I don’t think all of their moves will work.  It’s hard to see a role for TE Daniel Fells but for injury to Rob Gronkowski.  I don’t think Brandon Lloyd will consistently earn playing time, even over the marginalized corpse of Chad Ochocinco.  And sure, we’re double counting on Robert Gallery and Logan Mankins here.  The Patriots will end up cutting plenty of players who could start for other teams.

But that’s the point of free agency.  If the Patriots philosophy is to go into camp every year as the favorite in their division going away, then there’s no way to look at this year’s haul except that it was wildly successful.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars probably made a catastrophic mistake with the Laurent Robinson contract.  It’s unfortunate that Robinson will get paid like a no. 1 reciever, because he won’t be the no. 1 receiver even on a team with Mike Thomas.  Robinson, when healthy, improves the Jaguars starting lineup.

But the Jaguars continue to find pieces to build their defense, leaving a pass rusher as the only need remaining on that side of the ball.  With the Texans losing Jason Allen and Demeco Ryans, the Jaguars enter 2012 as potentially the strongest defensive unit in the NFL.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders did not get better in free agency this year.  They probably got worse.  So why are they here?

Because the Raiders found themselves in a dangerous trap when Reggie McKenzie took over the GM position in Oakland.  They had a talent-loaded roster that was already competing for the division, but had come up short on the defensive side in 2011.  McKenzie inherited an awful cap situation.  And instead of locking himself into a veteran roster (for better or worse) that he did not build, McKenzie made seven veteran cuts (including G Cooper Carlisle, who was re-signed) to free up just a bit of cap room in the immediate, but a ton of cap room that wouldn’t have been there in 2013, a year where the Raiders already have $100 million in salary commitments to just 11 players.

Instead of taking one last run in 2012 with Hue Jackson’s guys (a personal friend of McKenzie), the Raiders will field an average roster that they can build towards bigger things in 2013.  That decision was questioned at the time, but looks a heck of a lot better now that Peyton Manning has signed on with the Broncos.  With San Diego and now Denver fighting atop the division, and Kansas City able to improve at a greater rate than the Raiders, Oakland couldn’t have done anything to be the favorites in the division.

The Raiders also took smart one year fliers on veterans like CBs Ron Bartell, Shawntae Spencer, and Pat Lee, while managing to re-tool the offensive line on the cheap, paying for a foundation RG in Mike Brisiel (who replaces C Samson Satele in the starting five), and getting bargains on Carlisle and T Khalif Barnes, keeping continuity on an offensive line than improved immensely in 2011.

The Raiders will not be out of cap hell until 2014 at the earliest, but can compete this season on the strength of a strong rookie class (though they will not pick in the 1st or 2nd round), and can compete in the mediocre AFC West with the team they currently have.  The fact that most media outlets will pick the Raiders to finish last (which will be justified) shouldn’t deter the process.  Competing with the AFC North for the sixth seed in the AFC field (and maybe as a darkhorse in the AFC West) is the upside for the 2012 Raiders.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs make this list in spite of becoming one of the few teams with absolutely no long term solution at quarterback on it’s roster.  Brady Quinn is 28. Matt Cassel is 30.  Ricky Stanzi is an interesting backup QB prospect, but likely will not be relevant until the Chiefs draft a quarterback in the first or second round and replace Cassel on the roster.  With the acquisitions of Tim Tebow by the Jets, David Garrard by the Dolphins, and Chad Henne by the Jaguars, I’m 95% confident that the NFL’s worst QB situation sits somewhere in the state of Missouri.

But outside of that position, the Chiefs are as strong as any team in the NFL.  To fix their anemic offense, they turned RT Barry Richardson into Eric Winston.  They also will replace Casey Wiegmann at center with Rodney Hudson, and Leonard Pope at TE with Kevin Boss.  Jamaal Charles will return from injury to join Peyton Hills.  And all of these moves fit new O.C. Brian Daboll’s scheme quite well.  Finding a quarterback will be the next step for the Chiefs.

New York Jets

The Jets are going to find themselves in a tough spot a year from now when they realize how much they guaranteed Mark Sanchez, but that’s next year’s issue.  This year the Jets rebuilt their secondary around an athlete in LaRon Landry, and will move Antonio Cromartie to free safety.  He will be replaced by Kyle Wilson.  The Jets were also able to retain Sione Pouha and Bryan Thomas, giving them one of the best defenses in the AFC, which Landry will only help.

Obviously, Tim Tebow will be a very significant part of the offense this year, though I doubt the Jets are going to figure out how to use him before Mark Sanchez plays himself out of the starting job, an event that would end the Tebow “problem.”  The Jets still have work to do on offense, but were able to fix their WR situation on the cheap, adding Chaz Schilens to replace the ineffective Plaxico Burress.  Up next: finding a running back who can lead the rushing attack.  Cedric Benson would be a good fit.

Chicago Bears

The Bears didn’t get everything they could have wanted in free agency, but they kicked off the period trading for WR Brandon Marshall, quickly added two backup quarterbacks (Jason Campbell and Josh McCown), depth at running back (Michael Bush), receiver (Eric Weeks), and linebacker (Blake Costanzo).  They haven’t fixed tight end and apparently don’t see a possible solution for their OL on the free agent market.

But with the draft upcoming, the Bears are noticeably better on offense in terms of depth to the point where last year’s injury-related collapse doesn’t even have a chance to occur again.  Unlike in 2011, the Bears are set for the long-haul.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks were able to name their price on Matt Flynn, and ended up upgrading their quarterback situation without even trying.  It will be interesting to see if the Seahawks remain in the hunt for a quarterback in the first round of the draft.  The Seahawks have weapons out the wazoo to run Darrell Bevell’s version of the spread offense, and a handpicked OL that simply missed too many games to injury in 2011.

The Seahawks had a fantastic defense last year, and only added to it (although David Hawthorne as an outstanding UFA is still a big deal) with a one year contract for Jason Jones.  But the offensive firepower they added was a big deal.  The day after the super bowl, RB Marshawn Lynch wasn’t under contract and the only offensive back who was under contract was Tarvaris Jackson.  With Flynn and Lynch locked up, the Seahawks could be a surprise contender in the NFC West.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons really get a ton of credit for the last two years of free agency.  Since July of 2011, they had to deal with the expiration of 1) all five of their starting offensive linemen, 2) every receiver on the roster but Roddy White and Eric Meier (and obviously Julio Jones), 3) backup RB Jason Snelling, twice, 4) Every defensive end on the roster except Lawrence Sidbury, 5) the potential cap-related loss of MLB Curtis Lofton (26 years old), 6) a secondary that needed to be entirely overhauled.

And all GM Thomas Dimitroff lost was 1) WR Michael Jenkins, who would have been replaced anyway by Jones, 2) FS Erik Coleman, who was released and signed by the Lions, 3) Jamaal Anderson, who he released, 4) Harvey Dahl, who the Rams vastly overpaid for, and 5) potentially Lofton and starting C Todd McClure.

Amazingly, that’s it.  The Falcons seemed to play the market perfectly right in every case.  While I have legitimate criticisms about some player they’ve overdrafted, Dimitroff has fixed the contract issue he inherited with his veterans and now has set the Falcons up to be a perennial super bowl contender under Matt Ryan whose window of opportunity has just opened.

Controversial Omissions

Buffalo Bills – The Bills ponied up big time for Mario Williams, and in all reality, this won’t hurt their cap that much since the Bills never really spent to the cap anyway and there will be CBA-mandated spending minimums starting in 2013.  But it also will not help them as much as it seems.  The Bills spent the third overall pick last year on a good player in Marcel Dareus, but if he’s getting bumped inside in Dave Wannestedt’s 4-3, then even as a pro bowler (should he reach that level), the Bills can’t really get value on that pick.  Mark Anderson raises the overall quality of the Bills DL as well, but they overpaid for him.

The Bills spent as much as any team this season, but at least five, maybe six teams improved by a greater amount this offseason, including at least one in their own division.

Denver Broncos – One of those five or six teams that that improved more than the Bills was the Denver Broncos, who, uh, signed Peyton Manning?  That will do the trick.

Still, the Broncos decision to rid themselves of the Tim Tebow “problem” is a God-send in disguise for the Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers.  Manning will give those teams fits this year and probably next year, but it’s not going to be long until Manning is a 38 year old quarterback guaranteed $19 million on the cap in 2014.  That’s a team in an awful situation, supposing that Manning isn’t still still the best player on the team at that point.  He just might be, because defensive standout Champ Bailey will be 36 and still under contract.

Tebow isn’t Manning (and he’ll never be Peyton Manning), but he was just 24, and was developing a special relationship with the city of Denver.  If he improved by as much as he was capable of improving on a year to year basis, AFC West opponents would have had all sorts of problems competing with that kind of player.  Heck, they had problems competing with him in 2011, when he completed 46% of his throws.

The Broncos saved the other teams in the AFC West that headache by sending Tebow to the Jets.  Manning really, truly does improve the Broncos a lot in the short term, but that more or less makes the Broncos this year’s 2011 Philadelphia Eagles.  A weak roster got a LOT better using free agency as it’s primary vehicle.  What you probably didn’t realize about the 2011 Eagles is that most of their FA signings worked out really well.  But they didn’t all work out, and it was tough to overcome the prior deficiencies on the roster with a stars-and-scrubs approach.

So here are the Denver Broncos who have cashed in their chips to try and get a winning season now, on the back of a 36 year old quarterback, a year after they overcame the odds with a 24 year old quarterback.  If stripping the names “Peyton Manning” and “Tim Tebow” makes that seem like a bad decision, well, then yeah, I’d say it does make it sound like a bad decision.

Denver is definitely not a FA loser, but there’s no objective way to make last year’s Dream Team Eagles seem like a FA loser (outside of the Asomugha contract, which could improve significantly in year two).  But as Andy Reid can tell you, 8-8 is 8-8, no matter whether you get there with homegrown youth, or with free agents.

NFL Free Agent Tables by Position

For your viewing pleasure, here are the NFL free agent lists as of 3/7/12 at 4 PM, according to my own database.  There are players who are technically “retired” on this list.  I will have to manually pick them out over the next few weeks:

Let’s start with the quarterbacks.  Why not?

Free Agent Quarterbacks 2012

Pos.	Last Name	Age	School	Draft Year	AV Rate
QB	Manning	36	Tennessee	1998	49
QB	Garrard	34	East Carolina	2002	38
QB	McNabb	36	Syracuse	1999	37
QB	Orton	30	Purdue	2005	34
QB	Campbell	31	Auburn	2005	34
QB	Smith	28	Utah	2005	26
QB	Delhomme	37	UL-Lafayette	1997	19
QB	Henne	27	Michigan	2008	18
QB	Young	29	Texas	2006	18
QB	Hill	32	Maryland	2002	18
QB	Pennington	36	Marshall	2000	14
QB	Garcia	42	San Jose State	1994	9
QB	Grossman	32	Florida	2003	9
QB	Orlovsky	29	Connecticut	2005	6
QB	Rosenfels	34	Iowa State	2001	5
QB	Johnson	26	San Diego	2008	4
QB	Redman	35	Louisville	2000	4
QB	Stanton	28	Michigan State	2007	4
QB	Quinn	28	Notre Dame	2007	3
QB	Whitehurst	30	Clemson	2006	3
QB	Flynn	27	LSU	2008	3
QB	Losman	31	Tulane	2004	2
QB	Dixon	27	Oregon	2008	2
QB	Batch	38	Eastern Michigan	1998	2
QB	Leftwich	32	Marshall	2003	2
QB	McCown	33	Sam Houston State	2002	2
QB	Hanie	27	Colorado State	2008	2
QB	Clemens	29	Oregon	2006	1
QB	Feeley	35	Oregon	2001	1
QB	McCown	31	Louisiana Tech	2004	1
QB	Carr	33	Fresno State	2002	1
QB	Brennan	29	Hawaii	2008	0
QB	Brohm	27	Louisville	2008	0
QB	Collins	41	Michigan	1995	0
QB	Willy	27	Buffalo	2009	0
QB	Brown	25	West Virginia	2010	0
QB	Gutierrez	28	Idaho State	2006	0
QB	Chappell	25	Indiana	2011	0
QB	Boller	31	California	2003	0
QB	Davis	25	Ball State	2009	0
QB	Anderson	29	Oregon State	2005	0
QB	Brown	25	Troy	2010	0
QB	O’Connell	27	San Diego State	2008	0
QB	Brunell	42	Washington	1993	0
QB	Cantwell	27	Louisville	2009	0

LiveBall Sports’ Free Agent Favorites: Where may the value in the market lie?

This article aims to examine the NFL free agent market, and find where the money may not flow to the best talent.

Quarterbacks

Jason Campbell (30) –  Campbell isn’t a young, improving quarterback anymore, but he had his best start in 2011, truncated by a collarbone injury in Week 6.  He’s a good bet to be one of the best 20 quarterbacks in the NFL over the next three seasons, and any franchise that needs to get something going with a veteran guy who is good with younger players, this could be the signing you are looking for,

Kyle Orton (30) – Another guy who is likely good enough to be a starting NFL quarterback, and is relatively young enough so that you don’t have to go out and immediately draft his successor.  Orton’s value is in his ability to throw for 300 yards regularly while protecting the football.  What Orton has lacked as a starting quarterback in the NFL is a power running game that can make up for his physical deficiencies that originally caused him to drop to the fourth round and presently truncate his numbers against teams that play man-to-man defense very well.

David Garrard (34) – If the only concern your team has is who in this free agent class can give you the best return on a one year investement, David Garrard is the best possible signing in this class.  Garrard’s age suggests that if he has a 16 game season left in him, it is going to be isolated.  But Chad Pennington had that one season where he led a 1-win Miami team to the playoffs the following year, and if any NFL team picking near the top of the draft is looking for the same kind of shot in the arm, Garrard is the guy

Chad Henne (27) – The opposite of Campbell, but no less appealing as a prospect, Henne would benefit from going to a veteran team when his birthdate is favorable on a three year contract and he can win the starting job and lead a team to the playoffs.  Miami was not the franchise for Henne to achieve success, but he was good in 2009, better than that in 2010, and had a lost contract year in 2011.  Chad Henne can be the long term solution for your team at quarterback, but there’s a big difference between 27 and 29 years old and the other pieces must be in place.  Henne would be a perfect fit in San Francisco replacing Alex Smith, though he would appear destined for New York to push Mark Sanchez.

Running Backs

Ray Rice is perhaps the best player hitting free agency this year at age 25, but one can only assume he will get paid as such.

Cedric Benson (29) – Benson may have to sign somewhere as a no. 2 back, but he was once again quite good in Cincinnati’s zone rushing scheme this year, and after three straight “prove it” years with the Bengals, Benson is an undervalued short term solution at running back who can give a team good years at starter production and not kill you in the passing game.

Mike Tolbert (27) – Tolbert offers great versatility having played both running back and fullback for Norv Turner.  He’s probably overvalued on this market as a primary runner.  But if you have a team like the Chiefs who uses two backs fairly regularly, Tolbert as a three-down player is good enough to justify a four year contract with guaranteed money in the $6-8 million range.  He is not Darren Sproles on third down, but he can do everything you ask.

Wide Receivers

I believe this wide receiver class is mostly fools gold, and that there will be a lot of crazy money thrown around with not a whole lot of success.  The Patriots are almost certain to get a good value to sign Wes Welker because they use him differently than any other team is capable of.  What would be great value for the Patriots would mean overpaying for anyone else.  The most interesting name is Mike Wallace, who is a restricted free agent with the Steelers and is probably worth the first round compensation it would take to sign him away, particularly if you are the Browns, Bengals, or Ravens.

Stevie Johnson (26) – Stevie Johnson might be the best unrestricted free agent in this class if Buffalo lets him get away.  He’s not going to get paid like Dwayne Bowe or Marques Colston, and that’s why he’s the best value on this list.

Randy Moss (35) – Moss is going to sit on the back burner as younger players get paid, but he’s one of the better targets of this free agent class with regard to winning games with competitive people, and Randy Moss on a two year contract makes so much more sense than Plaxico Burress did at this time last year.

Johnson, Wallace, and Moss are all options for the New England Patriots, who need a receiver to replace free agent Deion Branch.

Tight End

Jeremy Shockey (32) – With guys like Jermichael Finley and Fred Davis likely to wear the franchise tag because of the premium that is being put on tight ends right now as well as their favorable birthdates, don’t forget about Shockey, who was made expendable by the Panthers’ post lockout trade for Greg Olsen with the Bears.  Shockey is still a starting tight end in the NFL, and if you don’t have a guy who can control the passing game between the numbers, you probably don’t have much of a passing game.

Offensive Tackle

This is such a thin position that there are no values.  Max Starks (Pittsburgh) and Jared Gaither (San Diego) are in line for big money contracts because they are free agents and can play tackle in this league.

The value signing is likely to be someone who is cut from a big contract, someone like Marcus McNeill of the Chargers.

Guards

Carl Nicks is going to get more money than every other guard on the market combined, and it is well deserved.  Ben Grubbs is right behind him in the pecking order, and may not return to Baltimore because of the team’s cap situation; Grubbs, a former first round pick, was the second best guard on his own team this year.

Evan Mathis (31) – Mathis was a cost-free pickup by the Eagles who outperformed most of the players who are going to tax the Eagles salary cap situation over the next few years.  The Eagles are expected to re-sign him, but if I’m the Redskins or the Giants, I’m not sure I would let that happen so cheaply.  Actually, I know for a fact I wouldn’t.  In fact, with OL coach Hudson Houck’s retirement from the Cowboys, they should get in on Mathis as well.

Chilo Rachal (26) – Came out of USC with excellent talent in 2008, and didn’t give the best return to the 49ers.  Still quite young and a good bet to develop into one of the better lineman in the NFL over the next couple of years.  The Redskins should be interested.

Centers

Scott Wells and Chris Myers are both great players who will cost a pretty penny to re-sign, but in my eyes, this class is headlined by a guy who was the Chris Myers of three years ago.

Dan Koppen (33) – The former pro-bowl center of the Patriots has become a forgotten man of sorts, and the Patriots are not anticipated to re-sign the player who started at center for two super bowl champion teams.  He doesn’t have a lot of effectiveness left and is coming off of injury, but Koppen could be out there on the market around the draft.  Look for him to be playing in Kansas City next season.

Samson Satele (28) – The Oakland Raiders have an awful cap situation, and a vested interest in keeping their interest in re-signing Satele quiet as not to drive up the price.  If he could add guard to his arsenal, that would make Satele so much more valuable on a long term contract.

Will Montgomery (29) – Found a home at center with the Washington Redskins.  Will get lost in this class and possibly re-sign for just over $1 million.  This is exactly what the Redskins are hoping for.  If he has to try the market again next year, he’ll be 30 years old, so Montgomery obviously has a vested interest in cashing in while he can.

Defensive Tackles

For every time you hear a commentator declare that the key to a great 3-4 defense is a great nose tackle, just remember that when push comes to shove, NFL teams just don’t put their franchise tags on their nose tackles.  They’re too interchangeable and don’t play enough snaps.  Nose tackles can have a more direct impact on a game than nickle backs, but they essentially split snaps with each other between base and sub packages.  Haloti Ngata didn’t get paid because he was a nose tackle, he got paid because he’s the toughest interior lineman to block in the NFL.

Arizona’s Calais Campbell is the cream of the crop at this position.  Here’s someone who might sit on the market a little longer:

Kendall Langford (26) – Has been made expendable by depth on the Miami Dolphin DL and a scheme change back to a 40 front.  Langford is one of the 30 best defensive linemen in the NFL, and is in a class where there just aren’t a great number of interior defensive linemen with expiring contracts.  Despite this, his name has generated almost no publicity.  Of course, the same issue didn’t prevent Stephen Bowen from getting a big 5 year contract with the Redskins.

Jason Jones (26) – A very dangerous part of the FA class for defensive lineman because he was sensational in the first three years of his career and was incredibly marginalized last year after the Titans let DL coach Jim Washburn go to Philadelphia.  After seeing what Jason Babin did last year, Jones is going to have his suitors.

Amobi Okoye (25) – A first round pick of the H0uston Texans in 2007, Okoye has been around forever.  He has just now exited the discussion of U-25 talent in the NFL.  A good comp for him on the free agent market would be Randy Starks, who was signed in free agency by the Dolphins at age 25 in 2008, and has gone on to be one of the better interior defensive lineman in the NFL.  Had a good year for the Bears on a one year deal, but wasn’t a primary headline maker.

Defensive Ends/3-4 Outside Linebackers

Anthony Spencer (28) –  Spencer is a three down defensive player in a 3-4 scheme who is underrated because his primary value is that he takes on blocks well against the run, and turns action back inside.  The Cowboys always talked about increasing his sack production, but his inability to do that across from DeMarcus Ware is going to affect how much he gets paid.  Spencer can rush the passer as well, he just isn’t a good option as a third down pass rusher with other, better options typically available.

Ahmad Brooks (28) – Brooks was a supplemental draft pick of the Bengals in 2006 as a middle linebacker.  He’s still in the league because he has re-invented himself as a pass rusher.  Just 28, there’s still untapped potential here for some team looking to improve it’s third down defense.  For the 49ers, the pick of Aldon Smith makes Brooks expendable.

Kroy Biermann (27) – Beat out Jamaal Anderson for playing time, but the free agent addition of Ray Edwards makes him expendable.  With John Abraham also slated for free agency, the Falcons need to get Biermann back in the fold.  Will any of their NFC South competition price them out of the market?

Jamaal Anderson (26) – Anderson was a first round bust of the Rich McKay-led Falcons, but he was a very young 21 on draft day, and he’s still just 26.  His first season outside of Atlanta didn’t really change it.  But for a guy who will be around in the bargain bin, Anderson hasn’t failed to flash the NFL skills to play multiple spots on the DL, and at 26, if you can get him to sign a three year contract, you can get the prime of Jamaal Anderson’s career for about two million per season, which seems like a good deal to me.

Antwan Applewhite (27) – He was a linebacker in San Diego for years, and was a defensive end for the pass rush starved Panthers last year.  He’s a great option to have on third down.

Linebackers

Manny Lawson (28) – Remade himself as a true linebacker in the defensive scheme for Mike Zimmer’s Cincinnati Bengals, and now is a very interesting proposition as a 4-3 OLB on the free agent market.

David Hawthorne (27) – I really think the Seattle Seahawks would love to lock David Hawthorn up long term without paying him like a top five linebacker in the league, but I don’t think they’ll be able to.  Hawthorne is one of the very best defensive players in the league, and if there is a free agent signing who can change the course of a franchise, Hawthorne might be the closest thing, at least on the defensive side of the ball.  He’ll probably sign for about $5-7 million per season, with a lot of guaranteed money.  I still like him a lot at that price

Erin Henderson (26) – Had just one season as a starter for the Vikings replacing Ben Leber.  Still, having a season like Erin Henderson did at age 25 is a pretty nice positive indicator for future success.  Not a safe signing my any means, but he doesn’t come with the injury history of his brother, fellow free agent E.J.  Erin is probably the smarter investment at this point in time, even if he’s unlikely to enjoy the career E.J. has already had.

Gary Guyton (27) – Fell out of favor with the Patriots brass, but played a lot of football at a high level very early in his career and could be one of the best value signings on the entire free agent market.

Cornerbacks

Cortland Finnegan (28) – With his temperament, maybe isn’t the safest investment.  It’s going to be tough for Finnegan to get paid in a market that features Brandon Carr, Carlos Rogers, Tracy Porter, and Brent Grimes.

Terrell Thomas (27) – A year ago, Thomas was one of the rising corners in the NFL, and in line for a big payday.  Now, he’s coming of an ACL tear.  Thomas was drafted by the defending super bowl champs, and had the misfortune of missing both of their Super Bowl Championship seasons.

Safeties

Dashon Goldson is going to dominate headlines when he hits the market, but I’m not sure he’s one of the five best safeties in this class.

Tyvon Branch (26) –  One of the best safeties in the league is just coming into his own.  Oakland will do everything they can not to let him get away.

LaRon Landry (28) –  Was one of the very best players in football in 2010.  Has been hurt and on and off the field for the last two seasons.  Washington is willing to let him walk and probably is making a mistake in doing so.

Michael Griffin (27) –  Has struggled with year to year consistency, but has generally been worth his draft position out of Texas.  Just 27, he’s likely to move on to a team who needs more range out of their free safety.

Michael Vick Contract Analysis: Philly Very Likely to Break Even

The truth about the Michael Vick contract is that the Eagles can not be viewed as a penny-pinching, financially prudent organization anymore.  If that was the case, there is simply no way a contract like this could have been given to a player like Vick.  The Eagles are going for it.

Vick’s contract comes with significant downside, not in terms of the guaranteed money, but with the fact that there is hardly any way the Eagles can get value on the contract.  They have plenty of flexibility as an organization, but since Vick will be paid like a top five quarterback for the length of the contract, he will not be able to outperform his deal as he did for the contract he signed in 2009.  The Eagles will only hope for some stability at the position over the next three years, and they’ll be paying almost all of their available salary cap space for that stability.  After just two years, Vick’s contract becomes a series of three one year options in practice: the Eagles can get rid of him at any time after the 2012 season, when Vick will be 32.

When I cross reference this with my own projections for the Eagles roster, the structure of the deal makes complete sense.  The Eagles figure to peak as a team in 2012: when any of their acquisitions from this offseason who provide value will still be in their primes, and under contract.  Realistically, 2010 was already the peak of Vick’s career, and because the Eagles were going to be tethered to him in 2011, there is no realistic outcome (including season ending injury) where the Eagles were going to be in position after the 2011 season to say, “thanks Mike Vick, but we’re moving on.”  The structure of this deal reflects this reality.  Michael Vick is the Eagles starting quarterback through 2012.  After that, it’s based on performance.

Now, Vick’s performance at the tail end of 2010 has to be worrisome.  There is no way the Eagles front office could look at the tape of the Vikings game at Lincoln Financial Field last December and think that the quarterback position will never be an issue so long as Vick is around.  He was far better against the Packers in the playoffs, but was still significantly outplayed by Aaron Rodgers.  Vick isn’t on the same level as Rodgers, and it’s probably optimistic to expect him to perform above Drew Brees and Matt Ryan and return to the pro bowl in 2011 or 2012.  But the Eagles aspirations for the next two years has to be viewed as “at least one super bowl championship” and the incentives in Vick’s contract explicitly reflect those goals.

Vick is being paid in line with his abilities for the next two years, and after that, he would need to exceed expectations to remain the Eagles quarterback through 2015.  The problem with the deal, if there is one, is the fact that the Eagles are going to have to move money around in the 2013 league year to fit under the cap, and that will force them to decide at that point where Vick fits in their plans going forward.  Before that, the deal is rather affordable.

Even if the Eagles manage to “win” value in the early part of the deal (they save some money over having to franchise Vick again in 2012, though they lose flexibility if Vick struggles), Vick is likely to make that value back on the other end.

To say this is a good deal for the Eagles ignores the risk in tethering an organization to Michael Vick, the player.  So I won’t say the Eagles just made a great deal.  But a break-even, fair outcome is far more likely than not.  So long as Vick is really an improved player, and his gains in 2010 were not a total mirage, Vick would have to undergo a sharp and unexpected injury-forced decline for the Eagles to not receive at least two years of starter value out of this contract, which is exactly what they are on the hook for with Vick signing this deal.  As the Eagles correctly surmise in the wake of the Kevin Kolb trade, the Eagles don’t have a good plan B on the roster if the worst case scenario with Vick becomes a reality, and there is hardly a reasonable outcome where Philadelphia has to eat money on this deal.

So while the Eagles are breaking the “financially prudent” mold by paying Michael Vick big money to be their quarterback instead of cheaping out and keeping him around on a series of franchise tenders, this is really more in the mold of the team’s other deals.  The 5-year, $60 million contract the Eagles gave to Nnamdi Asomugha is really a better contract for the player than this Vick deal.  Vick’s contract isn’t nearly as long, and contains similar guaranteed money to Asomugha, and Nnamdi is more likely to see the whole deal than Vick.  The Eagles have plenty of outs in this contract after year two.  And it fits their organizational model for contention as well as Vick does as their quarterback.

In other words, it’s a fair deal with limited upside to the team and plenty of accountability on the end of the player.